Dec. 25 at 9:50 PM
$SMCI Merry Christmas everyone. You all probably noticed SMCI is moving very slowly as it’s in a consolidation phase. I predicted in mid November when the stock was just dropping below the 200 DMA a target of
$27-
$28. HERE is a bit more info why that is likely the bottom.
SMCI shareholders prioritize EPS growth and consistent beats over pure revenue expansion. Stock price often tracks forward Q4 EPS closely: ~
$30 when 2023 Q4 EPS was
$0.35; similar levels now with 2025 Q4 EPS ~
$0.35. Despite 2024's Hindenburg/delisting noise muddying
$32 on
$0.75 EPS, pattern holds. Seasonal trend: Bottoms in January (
$27 in 2024, ~
$26 in 2025), then strong Feb takeoff (to
$123 in 2024,
$66 in 2025). Thesis: Expect ~
$27-
$28 low in Jan 2026, followed by robust recovery in February as EPS beats materialize and noise fades. We fly from there.