Sep. 11 at 6:50 AM
Oil just ripped to
$106 a barrel — up more than 5% today, brushing
$107 intraday. The US-Iran conflict, ongoing since March, escalated sharply this week: Iran targeted US Navy vessels, the US struck ten Iranian tankers, Houthi forces hit Saudi energy facilities. Crude is directly pricing that risk. The Fed still has to decide on rates next week.
Our risk model: 55.7/100, Caution. Valuation flashing — 22/100, Buffett Indicator at 244.9%. Recession odds stay low though, 12%, cycle risk holding at 88/100.
Oracle beat every number after Wednesday's close —
$19.35B revenue, cloud infra +121%,
$664B backlog — and popped to
$161.25 overnight. Today it's given a chunk of that back, trading
$152.94, down 5.38% from the overnight print but still above Wednesday's
$149.25 close. The beat was real. The market's still deciding how much it's worth.
Also this week:
$PANW,
$INTU, a clean beat from
$CASY.
$ADBE just reported tonight — early read says the bulls have a real case. Not calling it yet.
