Mar. 25 at 9:58 PM
$NKE the fear of tariffs and the loss of market share to HOKA (
$DECK ) and On Running (
$ONON ) is exactly why Nike is sitting at
$53.
for the last two years, Nike’s biggest sin was overproducing garbage-tier sneakers and flooding the market, which destroyed their brand cachet and forced heavy discounting (crushing margins). the turnaround thesis relies on them pulling back supply. if they guide for lower unit growth, the algorithmic headline-reading bots will dump the stock initially. but smart money will read between the lines: lower unit growth + tighter inventory = scarcity. and scarcity means they can sell at full price again. in retail, you’d rather sell 8 pairs of shoes at full margin than 10 pairs at a 30% discount. shrinking top-line unit volume is exactly the kind of surgery needed to save bottom-line margins.
