Apr. 8 at 10:25 PM
$NKE Barchart just ran a piece flagging Nike as deeply oversold. Today, the options market backed it up.
Final numbers:
→ Call Volume: 117,261
→ Put Volume: 50,131
→ Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.43
→ Put/Call OI Ratio: 0.69
→ IV Rank: 24.14% -- options cheap relative to 51% realized vol
Call-heavy by more than 2:1 on a stock everyone publicly hates right now. That's the tell, IMO.
What the market keeps misreading on the ER print: Remember, Nike actually beat Q3 on both lines. EPS
$0.35 vs.
$0.29 consensus. Revs
$11.28B vs.
$11.23B consensus. Wholesale up 5% -- North America leading. The selloff was entirely guidance-driven. CFO Matt Friend guided Q4 revs down 2%-4% and Greater China down approx 20%, reflecting accelerated marketplace cleanup. Goldman and JPMorgan cut to Neutral at
$52. Noted. That's the bad news. It's already in the stock.
What isn't fully priced in: Management explicitly stated on the Q3 earnings call that full-year and long-term guidance will be provided at Investor Day this fall at Nike's Philip H. Knight Campus in Beaverton. Nike has deferred the institutional framework to that event. With 65%+ institutional ownership, buy-side models stay open until that date. That's a structural setup, not a rumor. Stay tuned!
Guggenheim's Simeon Siegel has been consistent on the Sports Offense strategy and North America channel reset as genuine green shoots. Yesterday's Fleet Feet nationwide running partnership is that thesis executing in real time -- not a PR, a distribution data point.
As I've previously mentioned, gross margin expansion is not expected before Q2 FY2027 per management guidance -- which maps directly to the turnaround timeline the patient capital is already positioned for.
Monthly RSI: 29. Mean analyst target:
$64.63 -- 51% above where we closed. The pessimism is fully priced. The recovery isn't.
As always, NOT investment advice. Please do your own work. You can read the Barchart article mentioned here: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/1198992/nike-stock-is-deeply-oversold-should-you-buy-the-dip-here