Jun. 29 at 12:31 AM
Jefferies: Memory prices are expected to see a +40% to +50% a/q rise in 3Q26 & the market should brace for another +30% to +40% hike in 4Q26. In 2027, Jefferies is f/casting another +40% to +45% y/y price hike w/ the only recovery to be seen by 2028 when ASPs are expected to decline as new capacity, around +15% to +20%, comes into play. This supply won't be as meaningful as anticipated, as demand for AI and compute continues to increase
Currently, 50% of the total capacity is covered in long-term deals & contracts that are being signed b/n memory makers & top tech firms.
$MU already signed 16 agreements as part of its SCA's (Strategic Customer Agreements). This could rise to 70%, which means that there is going to be even fewer supply available for consumer products such as PCs, Laptops, Consoles, & smartphones, leading to higher prices across the board
Meanwhile, the expectations that Chinese DRAM & NAND will overturn the market remain a flawed narrative. Chinese firms are selling memory at similar prices to the rest, & the only advantage they have is supply, but that is primarily for domestic consumption currently
Chinese products pose no threat & are no longer considered to disrupt the market during the 2026-2027 period, but that might change by 2028 when CXMT & YMTC enter the next phase of their "Epic Expansion" initiative, which will see the acceleration of new fabs & production lines. That could lead China to develop enough supply inventory to cater to offshore markets.
The dominance of CSPs in LTAs is reshaping supply allocation, while China’s expansion remains a longer‑term factor rather than an immediate concern
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