Apr. 30 at 4:15 PM
$MDGL Muted, low excitement. Trading ~
$518–
$520. Market has limited confidence due to Q1 seasonality, rising GTN (gross-to-net), and heavy spending. Disappointment may be largely priced in. Rezdiffra launch is strong . Analyst consensus ~
$650–, but I don't go by that anyway. Launch has been solid for a first-in-class MASH drug, but high burn rate and Q1 dynamics create a "prove-it" quarter. If revenue/patients hold up and SG&A isn't wildly worse, downside may be contained. Big SG&A miss + soft metrics could still drop it sharply.
When I'm watchin' my TV
And a man comes on to tell me
How white my shirts should be
But he can't be a man 'cause he doesn't smoke
The same cigarettes as me
