Feb. 18 at 7:39 PM
$ABR Not sure if we will get confirmation of a bottom next Friday, but assuming management has been honest and forthcoming, at some point fairly soon, they will have gotten a handle on all remaining troubled assets and taken whatever action they feel is best.
It is not an indefinite issue.
The various loans were created and have been getting cleaned up now for the better part of 18 months.
When that confirmation is eventually given during their quarterly investor call, ABR is going to rip higher.
Adding the ~45mm shares short, with the company’s ability to repurchase shares ( at a discount to book, which will in itself create a gain), to the beaten down share price and in my humble opinion, ABR can easily go back to
$10, and eventually significantly higher.
Back of the envelope, that’s a total return of ~ 50%.
I am guessing within 6 months, that is reasonable.
A lot of assumptions in my analysis, but I think it’s reasonable. Anyone else agree?
As always, good luck to all.
