Jun. 21 at 1:38 PM
$NFLX this report is a prime example of a valuation case that leans heavily on narrative rather than fundamentals. A few points:
1. 42x 2027 EPS – This is a forward multiple on estimates three years out, not actual earnings. Basing a
$1,500 target on that is extreme.
2. Short-form content hype – This “third pillar” of growth based on unproven assumptions. Competing against entrenched platforms YouTube and TikTok. There’s nothing in the report showing Netflix can monetize or scale here.
3. Incremental engagement = ROI? – Assert short-form deals will drive “attractive ROI” without backing. Content cost, user acquisition cost, and monetization all unknowns.
4. 35x EV/EBITDA – For a mature streaming company with growing churn risk, slowing sub growth, increasing competition, and uncertain ad monetization? aspirational at best.
the price target is built on a string of bullish hypotheticals wrapped in vague optimism about content innovation—classic late-cycle analyst behavior.
