Ro_Patel
Nov 3, 5:57 PM
$NFLX valuation (Fwd P/E) at decade low w/ decade high margins & Revs
Mgmt suffers from classic "pure-play" hubris. For years, Netflix maintained a dogmatic refusal to buy distribution hardware, build channel aggregation marketplaces, or invest early in live/unscripted formats—treating its core UI as a strict walled garden exclusively for on-demand Hollywood content
However, Netflix is FINALLY being forced to re-evaluate but must more faster...at least they have started:
- Linear Channel Aggregation: Integrated TF1’s live linear broadcast channels (TF1, TMC, TFX, TF1 Séries Films, LCI 24-hr news) directly into the French Netflix UI—signaling a blueprint to act as a broader distribution hub
- Marquee Sports Rights: Locked up WWE & NFL holiday packages while actively bidding for massive global FIFA tournament rights.
- Live Unscripted Formats: Introduced live, daily unscripted programming (like India’s Lock Upp) w/ plans to scale globally
- Prestige Theatrical Runs: Selectively expanding theatrical commitments and windowing for top tentpoles & award contenders
- FAST-Style Ambient Feeds: Testing personalized ad loads, continuous recommendation streams, & linear FAST-style feeds to combat scroll fatigue & capture background view-time
- Vertical Video & Short Clips: Rolled out a mobile-first vertical video "Clips" feed (TikTok/Reels style) to drive content discovery, battle social apps for mobile screen time, and surface short-form highlights.
- Video Podcasts: Expanding into full-length video podcast distribution (partnering w/ major sports, comedy, & news networks)
- B2B & Telco Aggregation: Aggressively scaling third-party telco, ISP, & retail platform bundles globally to secure low-friction distribution
- Programmatic Ad-Tech Infrastructure: Built out direct integrations with major DSPs (Amazon DSP, Yahoo DSP, Google DV360) and LATAM retail media networks (MercadoLibre) to monetize ad tier inventory at scale.
- Passive Audio Experimentation: Testing in-app audio-only modes on mobile, allowing subscribers to stream comedy specials, documentaries, & news content like podcasts while on the go
Netflix remains the ultimate low-cost utility entertainment. As long as churn stays near historical lows, FCF prints at ~
$12B, & mgmt continues expanding high-margin levers like advertising & live events, the market is heavily discounting a sticky, cash-gen compounding machine
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