Sep. 19 at 12:09 PM
After major runs in names, if you see a base in the upper range of the breakout like so many names did during Covid and then a final attempt to push higher, you should have your caution flag raised IMO. Because failure of the base = waterfall effect. You can see it here with
$NFLX (but amzn, roku, xyz, wayfair and so forth and so on).
$XLE is representing that potential here IMO with a near 7x move from the Covid lows for an index. This is while the following things have happened (how much more is the question or peak oil catalysts could be a thing)
- Russia/Ukraine war (oil was higher) launched and still going on
- Added an Iran War (oil big push, but lower so far) than 2022 and GFC (lower highs)
- Massive infrastructure build and CAPEX
This is not a thesis about energy, but oil (we still need that with datacenter build outs and what not), but the XLE is mostly oil companies.
