Sep. 23 at 12:24 AM
$NFLX
HSBC downgraded to Hold today, the second cut in a week. Target goes to
$76 from
$96. The stock closed at
$72.16, down 23% this year while the S&P is up 14%.
The number behind it: YouTube took a record 14.2% of US TV time in July, while Netflix fell to a multi-year low of 7.8%.
One level down, the spending math favors the platform with no content budget. HSBC estimates YouTube pays creators about
$23B this year, ahead of Netflix's roughly
$20B in cash content spend. Netflix's English-language Top 10 viewing hours fell 17% YoY in July and August.
HSBC raised its 2027-28 content spend estimates ~2% and cut EPS forecasts ~6-9%. More spend, less earnings, fewer viewers.
Wells Fargo went further on Friday: Underweight with a
$57 target, expecting Netflix's top 100 original hours down 21% YoY in the second half.
Bull case on the tape: Pershing Square just disclosed a roughly
$1B position.
