Feb. 16 at 2:09 PM
The takeover battle for Warner Bros. Discovery has intensified, with both Netflix and Paramount Skydance sweetening their bids in recent weeks.
According to Polymarket, Netflix currently has a 45% chance of completing the deal, compared with 37% for Paramount—up sharply from just 7% in January, signaling shifting momentum in Paramount’s favor.
The change reflects two key factors. First, Netflix could face tougher regulatory scrutiny, after bipartisan concerns in the U.S. Senate about potential price hikes and reduced competition. Second, Paramount strengthened its
$30-per-share hostile bid by adding a
$0.25 per share quarterly ticking fee (around
$650 million per quarter) if the deal is not completed after 2026.
In December, Netflix agreed to acquire Warner’s studios and streaming assets for
$27.75 per share in cash, excluding Discovery’s cable assets.
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