May. 29 at 7:06 PM
$OUST has quietly become one of the fastest movers in my core portfolio. Funny part is most people only started paying attention after the stock already doubled.
My long-term thesis hasn’t changed. I still see a path toward roughly
$950M revenue by 2030, which implies around 41% CAGR from here. If the company executes anywhere close to that, the current valuation debate starts looking very different.
At a potential
$180 stock price, you’re talking roughly a 13x sales multiple on those numbers. For a company compounding above 40%, that doesn’t look unreasonable. Even on EBITDA, the setup still works.
Assuming 35% EBITDA margins on
$950M revenue gets you near
$333M EBITDA. Put a ~38x EBITDA multiple on that and you’re in the zone. For context,
$CGNX has traded around 35–45x EBITDA before.
The market is finally starting to price in what this company could become instead of what it used to be.
