KryptonResearch14
Oct 2, 6:28 AM
$OXY
Goldman is the first big bank to actually upgrade the rating this month, not just lift the target. Neil Mehta took Occidental to Buy from Neutral late Wednesday, target to 69 from 63. About 25% upside. UBS, Wells Fargo and Evercore all raised targets in September without touching their ratings.
The pitch is not the oil price. It is the balance sheet and the 4 billion of annual sustainable cash flow management says it can reach by 2030, with 85% of it structural enough to hold at lower prices.
The part already done: OXY cut principal debt 1.9 billion in Q2 alone, to 11.8 billion, the lowest since 2019. The annualized interest bill is down about 630 million from 2025 levels. Cash that stops leaving the business every year regardless of the barrel.
The wrinkle: OXY runs with essentially no commodity hedges. Every dollar of oil price flows straight to cash flow. With Brent back over 100, that is the upside. The downside is exactly as exposed. Shares rose 4.4% Thursday.
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