Jun. 28 at 2:14 PM
A couple of things need to be touched on after last night’s events in Iran, the GCC, and Iraq. One of those is Russia. Ukraine quickly realized the game at hand in the ME in February, and whomever is responsible for the targeting of Russian oil/gas refineries, deserves some significant credit. It was genius on the macro level to coordinate a pressured campaign against their refinery infrastructure, while a concomitant and relatively unrelated warfare raged next door.
Conservatively, Russia has 30 major oil and gas refineries. Ukraine has significantly impacted/shutdown 12-15 of those. That’s 50% of their refining capacity gone in a matter of months:
• Moscow Oil Refinery (Kapotnya, Gazprom Neft) — Hit May 16–17 (minimal damage reported then) and again June 16 & 18 (extensive damage, multiple fires, halted operations; repairs expected to take at least 6 months, likely offline into 2027).
• Yaroslavl Refinery — Hit May 25 and again overnight June 27–28.
• Tuapse Refinery (Krasnodar region) — Hit May 27 (major fire, halted operations).
• NORSI / Nizhny Novgorod Refinery (Lukoil, one of Russia’s largest) — Hit in May and again June 25 (halted operations).
• Kuibyshev / Kuybyshev Refinery (Samara region, Rosneft) — Hit June 10 (halted processing, fire reported).
• TANECO Refinery (Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, Tatneft) — Hit June 12 (halted operations).
• Slavyansk-na-Kubani Refinery (Krasnodar region) — Hit overnight June 27–28 (fire broke out; one fatality reported nearby).
• Syzran Refinery (Samara region) — Hit May 21 (damaged primary unit, halted).
• Volgograd Refinery (Lukoil) — Hit late May (fire reported).
• Ryazan Refinery — Hit in May.
• Perm Refinery — Hit in May.
• Kirishinefteorgsintez (Kirishi) Refinery (near St. Petersburg) — Hit in May (and possibly early June strikes on the St. Petersburg area).
The current crack spread is at historic highs, and Ukraine is directly responsible for some of that margin of profitability. This means that oil/gas refiners are also operating at a peak of profitability. I bring all of this to your attention for a variety of reasons. One, it’s inherently interesting. Two, it can enrich your portfolio if you invest in the right spot.
Major refineries in the US will continue to experience a tailwind of monies pushing their companies further into the black. One of which is particularly enticing.
$SKYQ
It’s one of the only refiners in Nevada, and it goes to full operational capacity this week.
Names like
$VLO $MPC $BP and
$XOM will undoubtedly see exceptional numbers next week, as well. My bet is on the little guy, though. I suspect we not only see positive PR with the initiation of their commercial runup in Foreland, but also quite a bit of share price appreciation. DD and GLTY. NFA as always.
