Aug. 15 at 4:39 PM
My view on
$ATYR :
Price has dropped to
$4.75 today as August options expire - massive options volume, IV >300%, and likely dealer hedging.
Institutional ownership is relatively extreme (now 68%+), I’m estimating retail at ~10%, shorts at 26%+ of float.
Latest 13F/NPORTs show a unpredictable pre-catalyst pattern: some quant, index, and lower-conviction funds trimming or exiting to reduce binary risk, but key holders - the likes of BlackRock, Vanguard, Octagon, Fidelity, Point72- largely held or increased.
With options OI still huge (esp.
$5/
$6/
$7.50), float remains ultra-tight. Squeeze risk is serious if news goes positive, given so few shares available for shorts to cover and FOMO potential.
Today’s price/volume action looks to me like market structure, not a change in fundamentals. Shorts pushing hard.
In my opinion, a clean readout could see an explosive reflexive move as supply-demand becomes even more extreme.
Of course, no guarantees of clean readout- know your thesis!
