Sep. 14 at 2:56 PM
$HP $HP ChatGPT🔮 12‑Month Price Scenarios
Here are plausible scenarios for HP in ~12 months, along with estimated probabilities and resulting price ranges. These assume no major tail‑events (e.g. geopolitical conflict, extreme regulation, or super‑high oil price shocks).
Bull:
$30-39 (25%)
Base:
$25-30 (50%}
Bear:
$18-25 (25%)
⚠️ Key Risk Factors / Upside Triggers
If new sanctions (e.g. on Russian oil) actually constrain supply significantly → could push oil prices up, helping HP.
If OPEC+ reversals are slower or global demand weakens less than expected, that helps.
Internally for HP: ability to integrate its international acquisitions, manage debt or financing costs, maintain profitability per rig, keep costs under control.
✅ My Estimate
Putting this together, I’m leaning toward HP being somewhere between
$25‑
$30 in 12 months under fairly benign conditions. That’s a moderate upside from today’s price, assuming oil doesn’t collapse and HP avoids major operational/financial missteps.
