Aug. 9 at 6:36 PM
$SPY 800... that is the general consensus now, led by the Genius Tom Lee. Recession talk has now hit an all time low, and Everything Is Great Again. That is, if you're in the top 1%. Anyway, here are some charts both for reference and the hint that even if we do go to 800 for another 'blowoff top' special, there is a significant correction coming (if not a cascade waterfall event that will kill the bears like myself when I turn bullish and BTD with the rest of the batch)... Why? Because excessive use of leverage ETFs, high rates, oil shortages, big tech's cash burn (to name a few).
VIX CHART:
That VIX wedge breakout that occurred as it should in mid-July BUT failed to go beyond 21, and thus only led to a bottoming of semiconductors and not a market-wide selloff. However, there is a much bigger wedge (not fully shown here) that follows the last large VIX spike (Liberate From Your Wallet Day in April 2025) that should bring the correction in the next two months. I had originally predicted it to happen mid/late August, but that failed (and early) breakout prolongs the process. I will continue to BTD on
$UVIX but rotate out of the highest cost basis shares to keep my cost basis low.
COR1M:
I haven't forgotten about this, nor is is saying anything different from the last few weeks. A big correction is imminent, but as you can see, prolonged and historically extreme on the complacency. At these levels, it always leads to a massive vol spike.
SOXX CHART:
Updated chart of
$SOXX with
$SOXL and
$SOXS relative values. Must consider the possibility of continued DCB on semis, going thru to 560, even as high as 600. Possibly thru NVDA ER on August 26th. No SNDK chart anymore, as I got to my main target of 1050, and though I'm still leaning bearish on it, SNDQ and SNXX are now day trading vehicles irrespective of my SOXL/SOXS positions. Still leaning on an eventual target of 750s. SNDK is a retail favorite, thus will be more volatile than other semis, thus best to day trade. However beware of the possibility of an extreme event causing it to drop enough that the 2x would fall more than 60% causing the destruction of the ETF because SNDK has that possibility of falling more than 30% at some point especially with retail chasing. If you want more stability and true longevity, you want to stick to MU.
SOXX WEEKLY CHART:
Again, the SOXX 460 area was a very strong bounce point, not just because I said so at the time it hit 460, but the fact that the 20 weekly MA tends to be a very strong bounce area, as well as the weekly RSI hitting that 50-55 area. But in the big picture, it will get to my eventual 370-400 area as the final target. Now that doesn't mean it is the final bottom either, because we ALWAYS retest the 200, and that can happen in a future bear market, recession, or cascade waterfall event.
That's all for today, this stuff takes a long time to prepare.
