Apr. 4 at 8:02 PM
A Wall Street forecast can be noise—or a real shock. JPMorgan Chase warns that Brent crude could surge toward
$150/barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed amid the Iran conflict. Around 20% of global oil supply and a significant share of LNG exports are disrupted, and even coordinated strategic reserve releases may fall short if tanker flows don’t normalize.
This marks a sharp shift from JPMorgan’s prior outlook, which expected a surplus in 2026 with oil drifting back toward
$60. The conflict has upended that balance quickly. The International Energy Agency now describes the situation as the largest supply disruption in modern oil market history.
Prices have already jumped de 50%, with Brent briefly topping
$120, while physical crude benchmarks have risen even faster as refiners compete for actual supply, not just futures. This highlights tightening real-world availability versus paper markets.
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