Sep. 12 at 10:14 PM
$FPS ...is on my radar into Tuesday's BMO print.
The options tape is telling a clean story here. Put/Call ratio sits at 0.33 — for context, anything under 1 means calls dominate open interest, and 0.33 is a heavy skew toward upside positioning. That's confirmed by recent sessions where call volume has been running roughly 5x put volume.
Look at the open interest by strike and you get two clear gamma walls: a dominant call wall at
$35 (14.6k OI, by far the largest strike on the chain) and a put wall at
$30 (3.4k OI). When price sits between a strong put wall below and a strong call wall above, market makers hedging those books tend to compress price into that range until an external catalyst forces a break — classic pre-earnings pinning behavior.
Implied volatility on the 9/18 ATM strikes is running 130-155%, and the market is pricing an implied move of ±15.58% off the print. That's the options market's own estimate of how far this can travel in either direction — not a prediction, just the price of the straddle.
Short interest is only 6.75% of float with a 2.02 day cover ratio, so this isn't a squeeze setup — there's no meaningful trapped short base to fuel a spike. Whatever move happens will come from the fundamentals and the reaction to guidance, not from shorts covering.
On structure: price has held
$28.24-
$28.76 three separate times in the last two weeks, so that's the level that matters if this breaks down. Immediate resistance sits at
$32.90-
$33.00 into the call wall zone above.
Underlying business context: last quarter posted +103% revenue growth YoY, backlog near
$2B, and guidance was raised above the prior high end. Average analyst target sits at
$59.90 across 9 firms, zero sells.
Not a buy or sell call, just walking through the setup as I see it. NFA, DYOR.
