Jan. 6 at 8:42 PM
PickAlpha Mid-Day:
Chevron-chartered tankers are heading to Venezuela, with at least 11 ships scheduled to arrive this month versus 9 in December, the highest since October’s 12-load month (preliminary, per Bloomberg). Chevron remains the only Western firm allowed to produce/export under a US Treasury license, and the crude is headed to US refiners including Valero, Phillips 66, and Marathon (reported).
Tickers:
$CVX $VLO $MPC
Our view is this is a barrels-to-the-US tape — the variable is whether Chevron flow becomes the sanctioned “release valve” while the blockade chokes the shadow fleet. If shipments keep rising, Gulf Coast heavy-crude supply improves and refiners screen better. If interdictions tighten or licensing gets politicized, the flow stalls and oil risk premium snaps back.
