May. 19 at 1:15 AM
$TM FY26 fell -21.5% to ¥3.77T w/ North America swinging from a positive ¥108.8B contribution to a negative ¥(192.5B) drag in a single year however, Toyota builting more vehicles than the year before but earned substantially less profit on them
FY27 guide came in at ¥3T vs est of ¥4.59T w/ 2 discrete cost lines disclosed inside it:
- ¥1.45T of Section 232 tariff drag
- ¥670B of Iran-war cost
Toyota filed Project Orca w/ Bexar County: a
$2B plant next to its existing San Antonio truck operation, w/ 2,000 jobs at
$88,583 avg wage & a 2030 production start. Toyota didn’t disclose what the new line will build. Industry consensus reads the filing as the Tacoma’s return from Mexico.
Section 232’s 25% rate applies to the full landed value of every Tacoma crossing the border, which translates to
$8,000 to
$14,000 of tariff per unit on a sticker that ranges
$32,000 to
$55,000.
Tacoma posted 274,638 US sales in 2025, a record year & a +42% gain over 2024. At a midpoint tariff cost of
$11,000 on that volume, Toyota is paying roughly
$3B in annual tariff just to land Tacomas at US dealers.
The Tacoma math says the bet pays for itself inside its first full year of operation
Toyota’s board approved a buyback of up to 410M shares, around 3.04% of outstanding ex-treasury. That came on top of a ¥4.3T tender b/n late March & late April that took out 1.19B shares at ¥3,067 each to unwind the Toyota Industries cross-shareholdings. The combined capital return is the largest of any global OEM in CY26
