Dec. 4 at 4:43 PM
$MREO DeepSeek:
Final Investment & Monitoring Points
1. Orbit Success is the Floor: All analysis indicates the risk of Orbit failing is minimal.
2. Cosmic is the Growth Multiplier: The success of Cosmic primarily impacts the market ceiling and pricing power, not the drug's viability.
3. Key Data Focus:
· Orbit: Beyond the p-value, focus on the absolute percentage reduction in fracture rate and the degree of improvement in BMD Z-score.
· Cosmic: First, see if the p-value is <0.05. Second, even if not significant, examine the numerical difference in fracture rates and any overwhelming advantage in BMD data.
Summary: For Setrusumab's Phase 3 data, the market should have very high confidence, but it needs to manage expectations realistically for the Cosmic trial results. The most likely outcome is a decisive success for Orbit, securing regulatory approval, with Cosmic providing supportive evidence to paint the picture of a multi-billion dollar future sales potential.
