Sep. 30 at 12:21 PM
Stifel reiterated
$ALKS Buy-
$42
$CNTA $AXSM $JAZZ $AVDL
Stifel said:
We remain optimistic on the prospects of ALKS2680/alixorexton in NT2, where we think
(1) the drug is likely to work,
(2) the efficacy bar is actually quite low-drugs historically are only generating ~2-11 minute absolute benefits on MWT and
(3) Wall Street safety/ tolerability concerns are overdone.
On points #1/2, we think there is a lot of room/ margin in NT2 for ALKS2680 to put up a clinical effect that is materially less than observed in the small ph1b, but still superior to standard-of-care.
And on point #3, based on our KOL checks, it has actually been difficult to find a physician who is concerned around visual AEs.
The bear case on NT2 is that visual AEs could be worse, but, because these patients have "normal" orexin, efficacy may be more modest -- in our opinion, though, you can't have it both ways.
