Jul. 12 at 11:53 PM
$UNH
Healthcare & United Health Group based on historical seasonality has made me even more bullish than I have been the last few months. Looking at the last 20 years, healthcare has generally performed well from July through December during midterm election years like this year. Of the last five midterm years, four occurred during bull markets or bull market recoveries, while 2022 was the only true bear midterm market. UNH has historically been a leader in the healthcare sector, & if the S&P 500 rolls over into a bear market at any point, my base case is that UNH could outperform from here as investors rotate into defensive sectors.
My bull case stands if my fundamental thesis continues, MCR% drops from AI & GLP1 use & institutions aggressively rotate back into healthcare for safety. Either way, I believe UNH & the healthcare sector have a good chance to outperform during broader market weakness. The war has made everything more volatile.
$CNC
$NVO
