Oct. 24 at 8:21 AM
$CNC 3 Scenarios:
Bearish scenario (25% probability) — company misses on EPS or revenue, medical-cost ratio worse than expected, and guidance tone is cautious. Market reaction: > 5%
Projected immediate post-print price range:
$31.50 -
$33.00 (possibly deeper if guidance is materially worse).
-Centene warned about the marketplace risks and withdrew guidance earlier in 2025; a repeat or worsening of that narrative triggers outsized negative reaction.
Base scenario (40% probability) — results roughly in line with consensus
Market reaction: muted
Projected price:
$33-
$37 ( ±7–8% band).
-modest beats/misses often lead to muted reactions
Bullish scenario (35% probability) — beats on EPS/revenue, margin drivers better than feared, or company provides constructive commentary on marketplace risk adjustments and membership trends.
Market reaction: >10% up and possibly a multi-day rally and short-squeeze.
Projected price:
$38 –
$44 (initial pop).
-En route to EOY recover >
$50
