Jul. 24 at 2:50 AM
$PATH
Funny how bear arguments are all the same - they only discuss how RPA is non existent
And then, even if you get through to them that UiPath has evolved into an agentic AI orchestration layer, they say a hyperscaler like Microsoft will just kill the business with their own orchestration layer
If Microsoft created an orchestration layer, they would certainly optimize an orchestration platform for Microsoft services. Same with OpenAI or Anthropic. They will build orchestration layers which intend to lock you into their ecosystem - which, in all honesty, may be fine for casual users and/or small businesses
Enterprises, however, run heterogeneous environments—Azure, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google Gemini, AWS Bedrock, on-prem models, SAP, Salesforce, ServiceNow, legacy systems, etc.
A vendor-neutral, or agnostic, orchestration layer can choose the best model or service for each task, optimize token costs, swap providers without rewriting workflows, and avoid vendor lock-in.
With token costs rising, cost engineering will become exceedingly important as agentic AI progresses.
In one multi-step workflow, UiPath can integrate and govern different models at each step of the workflow to optimize costs. If token costs change and one model becomes cheaper at a ceratiain step, the model used at the step could be easily swapped.
Historically, hyperscalers tend to favor keeping customers within their own ecosystems, while independent platforms compete by maximizing flexibility and interoperability.
That strategy is where UiPath is differentiating themselves with Maestro.
The bear thesis is a very obvious argument, but the bull thesis requires reading between the lines and digging deeper.
I have a strong conviction those with positions who make up the 35%+ short interest will be caught with their pants down sometime in the next 12 months.
With the current share price today, and financials, shorts are basically betting that growth slows, and that thesis only works if you believe they are still solely an RPA business - which they aren’t
I welcome the shorts though - more fuel for the fire later 🍻
