May. 19 at 4:26 AM
$PATH
My DD and bull thesis on
$PATH:
I beleive UiPath is being valued like a stale RPA company, but will successfully become the enterprise orchestration layer for AI agents, robots, humans, and business systems
For UiPath, old-school RPA was the core business
RPA (Robotic Process Automation) is like a digital office worker that follows rules and clicks/types through software for you
RPA was once extremely exciting because bots could automate repetitive work, but investors started worrying that classic RPA was too rules-based, brittle, and difficult to scale
Then AI agents came along and made investors ask, “Why use scripted bots if AI agents can reason through tasks?”
That hurt investors’ thoughts on growth at UiPath, and hurt the stock
And investors were right - at the time, IMO
The main reason PATH is beat down is investors worry classic RPA growth has matured, and that UiPath’s newer AI/agentic automation business has not yet proven it can reaccelerate growth
However, AI agents still need governance, approvals, security, audit trails, and execution across messy enterprise systems
And that is where UiPath fits…
If the market starts viewing PATH as AI infrastructure for real-world business execution instead of “old-school bots”, the stock will rerate
“So, this is a high risk startup?”
No. Just undervalued, IMO. (
$5.54B market cap)
UiPath is not a cash-burning startup. It has real revenue, strong margins, and a clean balance sheet
FY2026 numbers:
FY2026 revenue:
$1.611B, up 13% YoY
ARR:
$1.853B, up 11% YoY
Q4 revenue:
$481M, up 14% YoY
Dollar-based net retention: 107%
Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities:
$1.69B
Full-year adjusted free cash flow:
$372M
*New buyback authorization of
$500M* after completing a prior
$1B repurchase program
FY2027 guidance:
FY2027 revenue guide: approximately
$1.754B–
$1.759B
FY2027 ARR guide: approximately
$2.051B–
$2.056B
FY2027 non-GAAP operating income guide: approximately
$415M
“SaaS companies got killed recently and many are undervalued. Why would you buy this?”
Valuation and upside. The company is still growing, but priced for little-to-no growth - with zero re-acceleration of growth priced in IMO
However, PATH is a profitable automation company with solid growth, with the market waiting for proof of AI-driven acceleration
That shift, more precisely, is RPA to agentic automation
The new UiPath is becoming a broader business orchestration and agentic automation platform
Instead of just bots clicking buttons, the new model is AI agents understanding the task, UiPath orchestrating the process, robots/APIs executing the work, humans approving when needed, and the whole thing being governed, logged, and secure
The reason this matters is because enterprises don’t want random employees pasting sensitive data into ChatGPT or Claude, but they want a controlled platform where AI can be used safely inside approved workflows
I see it the opportunity at my workplace as government contractor - who works both onsite at government buildings, and onsite at my employer
Aside from more simplistic user AI automations with approved workplace tools like CoPilot, actual agentic AI through the use of today’s tools (ChatGPT, Claude, etc) by employees isn’t welcome in fields with more sensitive data (government, healthcare, security, etc)
Now, let’s get to partnerships/collaborations:
UiPath has an expanded partnership with Google Cloud, including Google Cloud Marketplace, Vertex AI, Google Workspace integrations, and newer Gemini-related document automation work
UiPath announced a collaboration with NVIDIA focused on high-trust AI automation for sensitive workflows like fraud detection and healthcare care management. The integration includes NVIDIA NIM and Nemotron model capabilities
UiPath announced work with OpenAI around enterprise agentic automation, including a ChatGPT connector and use of OpenAI models inside UiPath workflows
UiPath has integrations around Microsoft’s AI ecosystem, including Azure AI Foundry, Microsoft 365 Copilot, and Copilot Studio
UiPath partnered with Snowflake to combine UiPath automation with Snowflake Cortex AI
UiPath has also launched support around coding agents, including tools like Claude Code, OpenAI Codex, and other coding-agent ecosystems. The idea is that enterprises can use AI coding agents to build automations, while UiPath handles testing, deployment, governance, and production readiness
UiPath does not need one AI model to win. Its best position is being the neutral orchestration layer across many AI models and agents
Bear case:
RPA is becoming mature. Investors worry UiPath’s core business is no longer high-growth
Big tech competition is serious. Microsoft, Salesforce, ServiceNow, Google, OpenAI, and others are all pushing AI workflow automation
ARR growth of 11% and DBNRR of 107% are solid, but not enough for the market to price PATH like a hot AI stock
My counter is that UiPath may actually become more important because of AI, not less.
AI agents are powerful, but enterprises still need security, governance, audit trails, human approvals, compliance, error handling, legacy-system integration, deployment control, and workflow orchestration
That is UiPath’s lane
Earlier this month, they released on-premises agentic AI for the public sector
PATH also recently announced an acquisition of WorkFusion, an AI-agent company focused on financial crime compliance for banks
Banks spend heavily on compliance and need secure, auditable automation, so WorkFusion fits UiPath’s bigger thesis of becoming the trusted platform for enterprise AI automation
Government and financial sectors are both high-dollar areas where, if executed, Agentic AI can thrive - and PATH’s valuation can benefit explosively
I believe the market is underestimating the value of a neutral platform that lets AI agents, software robots, APIs, people, and enterprise systems work together safely
The market currently sees UiPath as a slowed-down RPA company, but UiPath is becoming the business orchestration layer for enterprise AI
With approximately
$1.85B ARR,
$1.69B in cash/investments, positive free cash flow, a
$500M buyback, and partnerships across Google, NVIDIA, OpenAI, Microsoft, Snowflake, and Salesforce, the company has the resources and ecosystem to make the transition
If AI agents become common in enterprises, companies will need a trusted platform to govern and execute their work. UiPath has a good chance of being that platform IMO
However, if the AI pivot does not reaccelerate growth, PATH may continue to trade like a mature automation company instead of an AI infrastructure winner
However, IMO, PATH’s current valuation already reflects that skepticism - all while the company is still profitable, cash-rich, partnered with major AI players, and positioned directly in the enterprise AI automation trend
Extremely high reward, with a decent amount of risk already offset IMO
Also, if you like short squeezes, short interest sits at 28.7% with 3.5 days to cover
My last three high conviction plays which occupied large amounts of my portfolio were:
$ASTS at
$2.00
$GRRR at
$4.00
$POET at
$1.75
This is my next big play
I bought 7,000 shares at open this morning at
$10.29, and plan on buying another 7,000 if earnings on the 28th happen to drop the stock
Not investment advice
Thanks for reading 🍻
