Sep. 1 at 11:35 AM
Cantor reiterated
$IRON Overweight-
$125 and said -- Our physician survey supports broad commercial adoption, with physicians indicating, on average, they'd treat ~44% of patients with MF anemia with selcodebart.
$GSK $BMY INCY KROS
CULV
Cantor added—Using this estimate across pricing assumptions of
$200-300K/yr could lead to peak sales of
$1.93B-
$2.89B alone, based on our analysis.
Even in a more conservative simulation (which also maintains our estimates for the rest of the pipeline), 15% (U.S.) and 14% (EU) peak penetration at 70% PoS could bring our equity valuation up to
$148/ share.
If bitopertin is approved (where we have high confidence) and the rest of our model stays as is, our model suggests an equity value of
$157/ share.
A failure and resulting removal of bitopertin from our model, while maintaining our current PoS of 40% on selcodebart, lowers that estimated value to ~
$50-60/share.
