Dec. 7 at 6:03 PM
$NBIX Crenessity product sales were
$98MM in its 3rd calendar quarter on the market. We cannot let this go
$VRNA was acquired for an enterprise value of just under
$10B. VRNA's new therapy did
$76MM in product sales in its 3rd calendar quarter on the market
Attached we note valuations paid to acquire 7 NBIX peers that ranged from 100 to 140X product sales in their respective 3rd calendar quarter on the market.
$MDGL Rezdiffra did a hair more than Crenessity in its 3rd quarter on the market. NOTE: MDGL has meaningful convertible securities that suggest its fully diluted market cap is 35% higher (see our post
If NBIX's Crenessity merits a valuation multiple consistent with these peers, it suggests Crenessty is worth roughly
$10 to
$14B by itself. This does not consider NBIX's Ingrezza, approved in April 2017 that is on track to doing
$2.5B in FY25 product sales.
Using these peers/comps suggest there may be considerable upside to NBIX investors should NBIX ever consider an M&A exit.
$XBI $IBB
