Nov. 11 at 12:31 PM
Truist🏁
$ALKS Buy/
$50
$TAK $AVDL $CNTA
Truist in its initiation report said:
ALKS is a profitable biopharma with base business+cash worth ~
$29/sh setting a high floor heading into Ph2 Vibrance-2 data in narcolepsy type 2 (NT2).
Positive Vibrance-1 in NT1 reported in Sept de-risks imminent NT2 readout. NT1 alone is worth
$8/sh in our SOTP valuation.
NT2 and IH contribute
$8/sh and
$5/sh, respectively.
ALKS is doubling down in sleep space with the acquisition of Avadel, a strategic move that gives ALKS first-mover advantage over Takeda.
Current leading narcolepsy drugs are only at ~10% penetration generating ~
$3B in sales.
Orexin agonists, including ALKS' alixorexton, are poised to become 1st line therapies and expand mkt. Initiate BUY &
$50 PT.