Acadia Pharmaceutica (ACAD)

$ACAD rip downside this post for you

$ACAD Today at work, we had an indoor picnic, during which I devoured a full plate of deviled eggs, a full bowl of baked-beans, a family-sized bag of spicy Doritos. I then washed it down with 4, 24oz Miller High Life's in the GOLD can and after that proved to everyone that I could still walk a straight-line. I even performed 25 jumping jacks as well, proving my agility! I then hung out the colleagues I don't like and I proceeded to blast out an entire slew of rank-n-stank, wet farts in rapid-fire succession, one, stink-fart right after the other!

Commercial-stage non-oncology focused bio revenue multiples. This peer group includes all non-oncology bios with approvals between 1/1/2016 & 6/30/2023 (+ TARS), market caps over $1B & gross margins north of 80%. $KNSA is down 20% over the last 2 weeks. Recall KNSA surged after reporting an impressive Q126 beat. $TARS now trades at the lowest revenue multiple in this specific peer group. 2.5 months ago $BCRX was rumored to be an imminent M&A candidate. $ACAD trades at the second lowest multiple in the peer group. It's been a long time & investors have been disappointed. Eventually investors are going to demand ACAD exit via M&A $NBIX will have 3 FDA approved therapies each worth billions. We'd genuinely like to understand why bios like ASND, AXSM & MIRM trade at such higher multiples than these 5? This is not investment advice.

$ACAD Slow steady rise into summer...........

$ACAD any upcoming catalysts?

Commercial-stage non-oncology focused biopharma ($1B+ market cap) revenue multiples as of 5/25/2026. The attachment excludes royalty aggregators & those with gross margins below 75%. $ARWR trades at the highest multiple of analyst consensus in the peer group (5 & 10 year). $ARDX continues to trade at the lowest multiple of analyst consensus. We've read some investors doubt the kidney indication will never get a peer multiple but IBS-C by itself is still a big number. $ACAD continues to be our top holding in non-oncology. Could all 12 analysts who cover them be wrong. $TGTX 's 5-year multiple may appear to be on the high side but there is considerable confidence in their longer-term forecasts. $TVTX even though it's meaningfully higher after their FSGS label expansion, TVTX appears to trade at reasonable multiples. As always, this is not investment advice.

$ACAD If ADP readout in a few months is good and on track, $35-$40 easy

$ACAD AI-Based Findings on ACAD After running ACAD through my AI-driven quantitative framework, the stock is in a downtrend with price falling below both moving averages amid weakening momentum. ACAD is trading around $21.10, below both the 20-day (~$21.81) and 50-day (~$21.70) moving averages — indicating continued selling pressure and softening structure. Key signals: • Trading below both MAs — downtrend • MACD negative (-0.28) — bearish momentum • Range between ~$20.48 support and ~$24.56 resistance 1-Month Outlook: Base scenario: consolidation near $20.05–$22.16 Breakout above $22.16 could open a move toward $25.92 Breakdown below $20.05 may extend further downside toward $16.44 Structure is bearish. Requires significant catalyst or volume reversal for recovery. Not financial advice.

High-conviction 2026 watchlist If you’re looking to position for serious upside, here’s the setup: $NVDA – Strong Buy, AI compute demand still off the charts $MU – $761 Strong Buy, memory and storage tailwinds fueling growth $FCEL – Do Not Buy, fundamentals and catalysts lagging $AXTI – Do Not Buy, market positioning not compelling $ACAD – $21 Buy, selective biotech exposure with upside potential Traders, focus on where the tech and growth narratives are accelerating — the rest are distractions. Play the winners, size wisely, and watch momentum compound into 2026 I often get asked why I don’t turn this into paid content, but for me, sharing stock information is just a hobby. I’m not financially struggling, so I choose to share it for free.

$ACAD EU has to approve right?

https://marketbeat.com/a/8663221/ $ACAD ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Spotlights Alzheimer’s Psychosis Pipeline, NUPLAZID and DAYBUE Growth

$ACAD New observational study at UMN: 'With the recent FDA approval of trofinetide for the treatment of RTT, we have a novel opportunity to test the sensitivity of eye-tracking and other psychophysiological measures to treatment changes. Anecdotally, parents and clinicians have reported improvements in attention and alertness during trofinetide treatment, but currently available outcome measures do not capture these types of effects. Therefore, we propose to conduct a pilot trial of changes in measures of attention, oculomotor function, learning, and autonomic function, all collected using non-invasive measures, during trofinetide treatment'. https://www.trialx.com/clinical-trials/listings/294086/cognitive-function-in-rett/

$ACAD wow I guess people’s patience is running out.

$ACAD Anybody adding shares at $19?

$ACAD $LQDA $PTCT $XBI both of you should get on the board. Some of us have been holding because of the potential but it has been few years now. Either the company executes the growth model or sells the potential to a buyer. Thanks for sharing your detailed analysis. I am not sure though if there will be much of a change by fall as there can be a market driven downturn by then.

$ACAD $PTCT $XBI nice work. unbelievable value on the table for acadia imho, given the analysis below doesn't even include pipeline pys opportunity. including $LQDA as well.

Analysts project $ACAD to generate slightly more revenues than $PTCT over the next 5 & 10 years. Both ACAD & PTCT have historic gross margin profiles in the low nineties. Actual FY2025 gross margin for both was 92%. Even though analysts project ACAD to generate more revenues than PTCT at the same gross margin profile, ACAD's market cap is roughly 60% of PTCT's market cap. Because PTCT's capital structure includes meaningful term debt, PTCT's enterprise value is about 150% higher than ACAD. The attachment graphs analyst consensus of both over the next 10 years. Both had their 1st FDA approval 9 years ago. Reading the graph knowing both generate the same gross margin, does it seem logical PTCT's enterprise value is 150% higher than ACAD? We're not bashing PTCT. This is not investment advice. Rather, we're genuinely trying to understand the disconnect in valuation. $XBI $IBB $IBBQ

Commercial-stage non-oncology focused bios (market caps $1B+) revenue multiples using analyst consensus revenue estimates post Q126 earnings & CCs, sorted highest 5-year revenue multiple to lowest. We excluded a handful like HRMY that have near-term patent cliffs, royalty aggregators like LGND & RPRX and those that have yet to report like BBIO $ARDX continues to trade the one of the lowest multiples in the peer group. $ANIP trades at the second lowest multiple but FY25 gross margins were 61% (FY25 gross margin provided for all peers) $ACAD is a head scratcher to us. This is not investment advice but we've been adding ACAD as, eventually, ACAD's mgmt & BOD have to consider alternate strategies to maximize shareholder value. Obviously whatever they are doing is not working. Can anyone help us? $BCRX was rumored to be in active M&A conversations but... $TVTX is also growing on us as a M&A candidate after the FSGS approval & the intermediate term patent cliff. More to come @DeadInvestor

$ACAD looks like R&D lady is retiring.

https://marketbeat.com/a/8651176/ $ACAD ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Targets $1B Brand Opportunity as Key Neuropsychiatry Data Looms

$BTAI $ACAD https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/earnings-miss-acadia-pharmaceuticals-inc-112731765.html

$ACAD great analysis from @Night_Owl_Biotech my updated thesis for acadia. fdmc: $4.25B ($22.50/sh) cash: $850M catalysts: Remlifanserin (ADP): Top-line Phase 2 RADIANT study results expected August–October 2026. Executive Summary -- ACADIA is evolving into a high-growth commercial powerhouse, anchored by NUPLAZID (PDP) and DAYBUE (Rett syndrome). The thesis has shifted toward a "spend-to-grow" model, characterized by aggressive SG&A investment (up 35% YoY) to secure market dominance in Rett syndrome ahead of potential gene therapy competitors. The near-term value is heavily tied to the high-stakes remlifanserin readout in ADP. Financials -- Fully Diluted Share Count: ~190.11 million (Updated as of April 29, 2026; includes 171.24M basic shares plus ~18.9M in options/awards). -- Fully Diluted Market Cap (at $22.50/share): ~$4.28 billion. -- Cash and Equivalents: $851.5 million (Actual as of March 31, 2026). -- Pro Forma Cash (May 1): ~$862.7 million (Calculated as $851.4M as of March 31, plus an estimated $11.3M in net cash generated during April). -- Net Cash from Ops: Notably, net cash provided by operating activities actually improved to $33.9M in Q1 (vs. $20.3M in Q1 2025), showing that current revenue is absorbing the increased SG&A load better than expected. Commercial Portfolio & Pipeline -- NUPLAZID (pimavanserin): Commercial stage. Strong Q1 unit growth; GAAP net sales of $166.9M. Primary risk is the 2026 patent trial regarding the 34mg formulation. -- DAYBUE (trofinetide): Commercial stage. GAAP net sales of $101.1M (up 20% YoY). Launch of DAYBUE STIX is the current growth engine; 30% of STIX patients are new/returning. -- Remlifanserin (ACP-204): Phase 2/3. Expanded to include Lewy Body Dementia Psychosis (LBDP) as of Sept 2025. This asset is now the central "make-or-break" pipeline driver. -- ACP-211: Phase 2. Initiated for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) in Q4 2025. -- ACP-711: Phase 2 ready. MOA: Selective GABAA-α3 PAM for Essential Tremor. -- ACP-271: Phase 1. GPR88 agonist; first-in-human study initiated Q1 2026. Catalyst Readout Timeline -- Trofinetide (EU Re-examination): Decision on CHMP trend vote expected Q3 2026. -- Remlifanserin (ADP) RADIANT Study: Top-line results confirmed for August–October 2026. -- Trofinetide (Japan): Readout accelerated to September–November 2026. -- Zydus Patent Trial (34mg NUPLAZID): Commencing November 2, 2026. Competition and Competitive Positioning -- PDP Market: NUPLAZID remains the only FDA-approved therapy. It competes primarily with off-label generic antipsychotics (quetiapine, clozapine). Its key advantage is a lack of dopamine receptor (D2) blockade, which avoids the motor-function deterioration common with generic alternatives. -- ADP Market (Pipeline): Remlifanserin (ACP-204) is positioned to address a massive unmet need with no approved therapies. The RADIANT study (Phase 2) is on a similar timeline to Cobenfy's ADEPT trials (BMS), but Acadia's serotonergic MOA may offer a more favorable gastrointestinal and safety profile for elderly patients compared to muscarinic agonists. -- Muscarinic Competition: Cobenfy (KarXT) and Emraclidine (AbbVie/Cerevel) represent the primary "next-gen" threats. While Cobenfy is already approved for Schizophrenia, its entry into ADP depends on late-2026 readouts. Acadia maintains that 5-HT2A antagonism remains the preferred MOA to avoid the cognitive decline and cholinergic side effects (nausea/vomiting) linked to muscarinic agents in AD populations. -- Rett Syndrome Market: DAYBUE is the first and only approved treatment. While it faces emerging gene therapy threats from Taysha (TSHA-102) and Neurogene (NGN-401), these remain in mid-stage development. Acadia is defending its lead through the launch of DAYBUE STIX, providing flexible dosing and improved taste to increase persistency over potential competitors. -- Essential Tremor: ACP-711 is entering a crowded field of generic beta-blockers and anticonvulsants. Its competitive edge lies in its GABAA-α3 selectivity, designed to provide efficacy without the sedation and "brain fog" associated with standard-of-care treatments like primidone. Executive Team and Board (BOD) -- CEO: Catherine Owen Adams (formerly Bristol Myers Squibb), brought in for her deep commercial launch expertise. -- CFO: Mark Schneyer, leading the transition to sustained profitability. -- Board Chair: Stephen R. Biggar, M.D., Ph.D. (Partner at Baker Bros. Advisors). -- Key Board Members: Julian Baker (Baker Bros. Advisors) and veteran biopharma executives from Pfizer, Vertex, and Novartis. Significant oversight by Baker Bros. (~25% ownership). Bull Thesis -- Operating leverage: The 35% SG&A hike is front-loaded; success in the ADP trial would allow Acadia to plug a new multi-billion dollar indication into an already-scaled sales infrastructure. -- Strong unit growth in both franchises despite IRA pricing pressures. -- $851M cash pile provides a massive buffer to fund the pipeline through 2027 without dilution. Bear Thesis -- Operating Loss: The company swung to a $4.6M operating loss in Q1 2026. Profits are currently dependent on interest income from the cash pile. -- Binary Risk: Failure of the RADIANT study would likely lead to a significant re-rating of the stock toward a "legacy commercial" valuation. -- Legal Overhang: The Zydus patent trial (Nov 2026) and the ongoing City of Birmingham class action create long-term liability and exclusivity uncertainty.