Mar. 31 at 12:52 PM
PickAlpha Midday:
Iran’s strike on the fully loaded Kuwaiti tanker Al-Salmi off Dubai is a meaningful escalation because it moves the war from choking flows to directly hitting loaded energy vessels. Yet oil barely panicked — WTI was still hovering around
$104 — which tells you the market is still leaning on the idea that Trump may de-escalate before this becomes a full-blown tanker war. 
Tickers:
$USO $XLE $ZIM
Our view is the market still looks too calm for the level of maritime risk now on the table. Once a loaded tanker gets hit and gasoline is already back above
$4, this stops looking like a contained oil shock and starts looking like the early stages of a shipping-risk repricing.
