Jan. 13 at 9:47 PM
$ZIM BULLISH
Geopolitical escalations (Iran tensions, U.S. seizures of dozens more Venezuela-linked tankers, ongoing shadow fleet crackdowns) keep the Red Sea/Houthi risk premium alive ā or even intensify it ā forcing continued Cape routing.
This absorbs ~2M TEU of effective capacity indefinitely, countering 2026's structural overcapacity (+3-5% supply growth vs. modest demand) and preventing the expected -20-25% rate collapse.
ZIM, as the ultimate asset-light, high-beta operator (88% chartered fleet), captures maximum upside from any rate spike: every
$100/TEU increase flows almost straight to earnings/EBITDA, supporting big dividends + potential buyout premium amid takeover buzz.
IMO, ZIM could trades HIGHER if disruptions persist/escalate into 2026, turning the "overcapacity doom" narrative into a classic geopolitical volatility winner. High risk/reward, but the mechanics are powerful when friction stays structural.
Just my take. NFA. DYOR