Jan. 20 at 7:10 PM
Does silver getting to
$400 -
$450 per troy ounce around 20230 sound likely? I think so.
1. Samsung's Battery Tech Is a Supply Wrecking Ball
🔹 Their solid-state Ag-C anode uses 35ish oz silver per EV
🔹 Not vaporware - 500 Wh/kg density, 600-mile range, charges in 9 minutes
🔹 20% EV adoption = 514 Moz demand. That's 60%+ of annual mine supply. For ONE application.
🔹 Toyota, BYD, QuantumScape all chasing the same, um, chemistry (pun intended)
🔹 Late 2020s deployment. Clock's ticking.
2. China Just Made Silver a Strategic Weapon
🔹 Export licensing kicked in January 1, 2026
🔹 Went from hundreds of exporters to 44. Overnight.
🔹 China refines 60-70% of global supply. Read that again.
🔹 October 2025 saw 660+ tonnes dumped as companies front-ran the deadline
🔹 Reports of Chinese buyers offering
$8-10/oz above spot to lock in junior miner supply
🔹 Cut exports 50% and you're staring at 5,000+ tonne annual deficits
3. The Byproduct Problem Nobody Wants to Discuss
🔹70 to 80% of silver is a byproduct. Copper. Zinc. Lead. Gold.
🔹 Primary silver mines? Down to 20-28% of supply.
🔹
$100 silver won't save you when the economics are dictated by base metals
4. Ore Grades Are Circling the Drain
🔹 Top 12 primary mines: grades down 36% in a decade
🔹 Reserve grades off nearly 40%
🔹 New discoveries running 150-200 g/t vs 300-400 g/t at producing mines
🔹 Peak production was 2016. We're 7% below that now.
🔹 Fresnillo - the biggest - down 14.66% Q2 2025.
🔹 Supply declining at -0.9% CAGR through 2030 while demand accelerates? $$$$$$
5. Nuclear Power's Dirty Little Silver Secret
🔹 Silver-Indium-Cadmium control rods (80% silver) are standard in pressurized water reactors
🔹 Each SMR needs 64,000-129,000 oz
🔹 127 SMR designs globally. 7 operating. 51 in licensing. 85 in site talks.
🔹 DOE dropped
$900M in SMR funding March 2025
🔹 AI data centers need power. SMRs are the answer. Silver's a-Long for the ride. Get it? It's the world 'along' but also saying it's A Long (bullish). dadjokeftw
6. Superbugs Are Bullish for Silver
🔹 136 million antibiotic-resistant infections annually. One in 31 hospital patients.
🔹 Silver ions work against MRSA. Bacteria can't build resistance the same way.
🔹 Antimicrobial silver market: 9.7% CAGR
🔹 Wound dressings alone:
$1-1.5B market
🔹 Antimicrobial coatings (45% silver):
$28-44B by 2030-2034
🔹 Boston University: silver amplifies antibiotic effectiveness 10-1,000x
7. Mexico's Supply Is Frozen Solid
🔹 25% of global production. 202 Moz annually.
🔹 Zero new concessions since 2018. Sheinbaum confirmed the freeze June 2025.
🔹 Mining investment cratering - down
$1.2B in 2025 to decade lows
🔹 Exploration budgets off 12.4%
🔹
$1.5B in arbitration claims stacking up
🔹 Fun/not so fun fact: Mexico holds 6% of global reserves but produces 25%. They're mining themselves dry. You might say they're digging themselves in a hole.
8. 40,000 Satellites Need Silver
🔹 Starlink: 9,422+ birds up, cranking out 6-8 per day
🔹 Silver in solar arrays, antennas, solder joints
🔹 Amazon Kuiper: 3,236 planned
🔹 China's Qianfan: 15,000
🔹 China's G60: 12,000
🔹 That's 30,000+ satellites from three programs alone
🔹 Defense side: Tomahawk, Patriot, THAAD, Hellfire all use silver-zinc batteries
🔹 Estimated 10-50 Moz annually and probably higher
9. Russia's Buying Silver. Sovereigns May Follow.
🔹 First central bank to announce silver accumulation this cycle
🔹
$535M earmarked 2025-2027 for silver, platinum, palladium
🔹 India reportedly adding silver alongside gold
🔹 Saudi bought SLV shares
🔹 Gold-silver ratio compressed to 50 from 125+ in 2020
10. States Are Re-Monetizing
🔹 Texas, Ohio, Arizona all introduced gold/silver-backed currency legislation
🔹 45 states have killed or reduced precious metals taxes
🔹 Constitutional angle: Article I Section 10 says states can ONLY use gold/silver as legal tender
🔹 Retail demand spike from even modest adoption hits a market already in structural deficit
$SLV $JNUG $B $GLD $HL