Jul. 22 at 2:49 PM
$AKBA for funzies I used @hsainu data to ChatGPT a projection for q1 2026. Assuming frenius and davita both have 35% of their patients on vafseo by end of q1 2026, with fda fast track confirmed by that date, and assuming 80% efficiency in rollout by same DOs, what is the expected sp by that date?
With revenue multiples of the following, the estimated stock prices were:
Rev Mult ->Est. Valuation (
$B)->Est. PPS
4 5.75
$29.2
6 8.63
$43.79
8 11.5
$58.39
10 14.38
$72.99
I’d happily take any of those. But for more fun. Assuming 5% increase in dd market adoption per quarter and assuming fda approval by end of q1 2027, estimates are:
Rev Mult ->Est. Valuation (
$B)->Est. PPS
4 8.91
$45.25
6 13.37
$67.87
8 17.83
$90.5
10 22.28
$113.12
