Jan. 9 at 11:08 AM
$SPY $KRE $JPM $B $SILJ
Market Peak Timing: On average, the S&P 500 has peaked about eight months before a recession begins, signaling that investors anticipate an economic slowdown well in advance.
Performance Immediately Before: In the six months directly preceding the start of a recession, stock returns have historically been flat on average
(0% returns).
Market vs. Economy: The stock market generally begins its decline before a recession is officially recognized by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and it often bottoms out and begins to recover before the recession has officially ended.
Variability: While historical averages provide a guide, the timing and severity of market movements relative to recessions can vary significantly. For example, the market peaked only nine days before the start of the COVID-19 recession in 2020, but 16 months before the Great Recession of 2007.
Historically
Market Peak to Recession Start 8 months Market Peak to Trough Decline ~30%
