Jan. 26 at 10:48 AM
$B 52.90 +1.83
Core holding / component of SPM cash reserve.
DAC (dollar average cost of initial BUY
$20.87 (4.22.25).
OVRVIEW:
Gold prices are projected to rise further in 2026, with analysts forecasting potential to reach between
$5,000 and
$6,500 per ounce, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and increased private investor demand. Following a 64% surge in 2025, the momentum is expected to continue.
note: Key factors driving the projected upward trend include:
Continued Central Bank Buying: Record amounts of gold are being purchased, with over 1,000 tones annually, as nations diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar.
Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty: Ongoing conflicts, such as in Ukraine, along with U.S.-led trade disruptions (tariffs), are bolstering gold's safe-haven appeal.
Strong Investment Demand: Private sector investors are increasing allocations to gold ETFs to hedge against inflation and protect wealth.
Lower Interest Rates: Expectations of lower U.S. interest rates and a potentially weaker dollar increase the appeal of non-yielding bullion.
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The U.S. dollar is going down due to a mix of factors, including expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, concerns about U.S. debt burdens, and a shift in global capital flows. Gold prices are rising at the same time, as they traditionally move in the opposite direction of the dollar.
note:
Inverse Relationship: Gold is priced globally in U.S. dollars. When the dollar weakens, it becomes cheaper for foreign buyers to purchase gold, which increases demand and drives up the price.
^ Monetary Policy Divergence: The Federal Reserve is expected to implement one to two rate cuts in 2026 to a range of 3.00%–3.25%, making dollar-denominated assets less attractive. Other central banks, like the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), have different policies, which further pressure the dollar's value.
^ Safe-Haven Dynamics: During times of significant geopolitical and economic uncertainty, both the dollar and gold can act as safe-haven assets, which occasionally causes them to rise simultaneously.
^ Central Bank Activity: Many central banks have been consistently increasing their gold reserves to diversify away from dollar-denominated assets, which provides a steady, long-term support for gold prices.
^ Fiscal Concerns: Long-standing concerns about rising U.S. debt and policy uncertainty have also weighed on investor sentiment, contributing to the dollar's decline.
