Feb. 2 at 10:55 PM
Scotia: We have increased our gold price forecast to
$4,600/oz,
$4,600/oz,
$4,400/oz, &
$4,200 from
$3,800/oz,
$3,600/oz,
$3,500/oz, &
$2,600/oz for 2026, 2027, 2028, & 2029, respectively.
Our long-term (2030+) price forecast has increased to ~
$3,400/oz from
$2,600/oz.
North American gold producers are currently trading at an average P/NAV of 1.23x (excluding internationals [1.31x P/NAV]
and royalties [2.04x P/NAV]). Senior and intermediate producers are trading at a P/NAV of 1.26x and 1.18x, respectively.
Based on our 2026 estimates, the stocks are trading at an average 14.4x EPS, 10.9x CFPS, 5.4% FCF yield, 7.5% sustainable FCF yield, and 8.0x EV/EBITDA (ex-internationals & royalties).
The group is trading at an avg
$1,252/oz of reserves,
$516/oz of resources, &
$26,498/oz of production (2026E)
$AEM $B $NEM $KGC -
$GDX