May. 8 at 9:45 PM
$TMC The Metals Company Inc. +
$MP MP Materials Corp. both riding the “critical minerals = AI + energy security” narrative.
$TMC is the more asymmetric bet:
deep-sea nodules = nickel / copper / cobalt / manganese bundle
~2.5B mcap vs long-dated multi-
$B NPV scenarios
permitting progress (NOAA compliance) is the key catalyst, not revenue yet
first production still ~2027 timeline
Big picture: market is still pricing this like a concept, while bulls are pricing future supply chain relevance.
But reminder: pre-revenue + regulatory + execution-heavy = high volatility, not linear compounding.
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