Aug. 21 at 9:07 PM
Heavy flow on
$B:
$494K of premium through the Dec 18
$45 puts, 119 days to expiry. Strike is 2.7% below spot (
$46.27), so this pays on a real breakdown, not a drift. Smaller in size, but a clean one sided print.
Put premium in this size means real money either wants protection badly or expects a move lower. Either way that's real dollars paying up for downside exposure, and that's information. For context, the broader tape is about 73% calls by flagged premium today, so this is a bet against the day's grain, which makes it more interesting, not less.
What I'm watching next: does that strike's OI confirm at the settle, and does the line keep absorbing size. One day's flow starts a thesis; follow through keeps it.
