Feb. 13 at 7:00 PM
$SLV $GDX $JNUG $B $GLD
❌➡️Stagflation = slow real growth + persistent inflation. Real growth might be 0 – 0.50%, but inflation props up nominal GDP to 3.50%. On paper, the economy "grows," to 4% nominally, but households feel it in real terms - & there’s almost no actual improvement in purchasing power. Nominal growth boosts GDP, yes, but w/out it, total growth would be next to ZERO. Most importantly, higher "nominal GDP" props up stock multiples🙃 are we catching on yet ❓
Prices rose 0.2% in a month - a 2.4% annual pace, exactly where inflation already sits. No improvement. Core prices climbed 0.3%, which runs closer to 3.7% annualized - hotter than the 2.5% yearly rate.
Inflation is still above target. The monthly trend is firming, not fading. Cutting rates now wouldn’t calm it. It would feed it -& working people would pay the price, like they always do.
Wait for it, some significant surprises are just around the corner from here.
