Jun. 17 at 5:48 PM
TD Cowen reaffirmed Marathon Petroleum as its top refining-sector pick following an investor event at the company’s Garyville refinery, citing continued opportunities for value-chain optimization, organic growth projects, and shareholder returns. The firm expects these initiatives to improve refining capture rates over the coming years and projects free cash flow yields of 16% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, including contributions from MPLX distributions.
Management said significant optimization opportunities remain, with plans for further interregional and day-to-day operational improvements. The Garyville sustainable aviation fuel project is producing above its 30,000-barrel-per-day target, while the refinery is operating at 655,000 barrels per day, above its nominal 617,000-barrel capacity.
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