Feb. 23 at 5:44 PM
PickAlpha Midday:
Private equity is still stuck in a “no exits, no cash back” loop. Bain says distributions stayed at ~14% of NAV in 2025 (near post-GFC lows) while the industry sits on ~
$3.8T of unsold assets. Deal value rebounded (+
$44% to ~
$904B) but transactions fell (-6% to 3,018) and fundraising slid -16% to ~
$395B — the 4th straight annual decline. The return bar is rising too: LPs are pushing for 20%+ net IRR, and Bain’s blunt math is “12% EBITDA growth is the new 5%” in today’s rates/multiple regime.
Tickers:
$BX $KKR $APO
Our view is the PE model is being stress-tested by duration. If exits reopen (IPOs/strategic M&A) and distributions rise, these platforms re-rate; if “hold periods drift to 7+ years” becomes normal, fee growth slows, secondaries keep gaining share, and the market forces a lower multiple on the whole complex.