Apr. 13 at 2:36 PM
🚨 Private credit is breaking. The hard numbers:
$OWL down 68% peak-to-trough. Down 40%+ in 2026 alone.
OCIC (
$36B flagship): 22% of shares requested for redemption. Their tech fund: 41%. Quarterly cap is 5%. That means
$4.2B is queued with no guaranteed exit.
This isn't just
$OWL. Q1 redemption requests across 12+ private credit funds:
$13B total.
$ARES: 11.6% |
$APO: 11.2% |
$BLK/HPS: 9.3%
The flaw: non-traded BDCs sell quarterly liquidity on illiquid loans. Works in calm markets. When sentiment shifts, the 5% cap kicks in and you could wait quarters for your money back.
The trigger? AI disruption fears hitting software companies which make up ~20% of all private credit lending. That's systemic, not niche.
are
Moody's flipped OCIC outlook to negative. U.S. Treasury has scheduled a systemic risk review.
$1.8T asset class. Illiquid loans. Retail investors. Capped withdrawals. A credit agency on watch. A Treasury review underway.
(NFA),
