Nov. 25 at 6:25 PM
This year thru Oct, North America’s default tally reached 69 (65 in the US & 4 in Canada). Europe, the Middle East & Africa (EMEA) followed, w/ 26. The rest were from Latin America & the Caribbean (4) & Asia-Pacific (2).
Compared with last year, default tallies through Oct were lower in all regions except EMEA.
Moody's Credit Transition Model (CTM) f/casts that the global speculative-grade (SG) default rate will finish this year at 3.8% under the baseline scenario, down from its current level of 4.4%. By Oct 2026, the CTM forecasts that the baseline rate will decline to 2.6%.
Global loan-only default rate will decline to 3.2% in Oct 2026, down -3 percentage points (pp) from the current level. Meanwhile, the bond-only rate will decrease -1.2 pp to 2%.
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