Oct. 23 at 3:23 PM
Scotia: We have increased our gold price forecast to
$3,450/oz,
$3,800/oz,
$3,600/oz and
$3,500/oz from
$3,250/oz,
$3,200/oz,
$2.X,800/oz and
$2.X,300 for 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028.
Our LT (2029+) price increases to ~
$2.X,600/oz from
$2.X,300/oz.
We have also increased our silver price forecast to
$38.50/oz,
$42.X/oz,
$40/oz,
$35/oz (from
$34.50/oz,
$33/oz,
$30/oz,
$28/oz) for 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028.
Our LT silver price (2029+) increased to
$30/oz from
$27/oz
Based on current consensus & Scotia Economics ests (f/casts for inflation, interest rates, & oil prices), we est (using regression analysis) fair value for gold at ~
$2.X,750/oz. This represents ~28% premium to fair value on our 2026 est (similar premium range levels seen in 2025 at 20%-30%)
Equities are trading at a 25% discount to bullion (weighted avg is ~20%), w/ FCF yield of ~5.7% on 2026 ests (~7.5% on sustainable FCF yield on SC price deck) or 7.1% at spot price (8.9% sustainable FCF yield)
$GLD $GDX $SLV $AEM $NEM