Feb. 2 at 1:25 AM
Alright, listen up. I’ve scanned the tape, and the institutional footprints are fresh. We’re not gambling here; we’re asymmetric hunting. You want leverage? You want edge? Here is what the “Smart money” is positioning for while retail is sleeping.
We have a budget of
$200-
$1,000. We are targeting February 6th (weekly) expirations to capture the full force of the implied volatility crush or expansion.
The Top 3 Watchlist
1. PayPal Holdings
$PYPL - The “Deep Value” squeeze
- Catalyst: Earnings on Tuesday, February 3rd (Pre-Market).
- The Setup: Everyone hates fintech until they don’t. PYPL is trading around
$52.70.
- The unusual flow: Somone swept
$272K int the
$48 calls expiring February 6th.
- Why this matters: They didn’t buy lottery tickets. They bought deep in the money calls. This is a high conviction delta play. They want stock replacement with leverage, and they want it now.
The Trade: Look at the Feb 06
$50 calls.
- Cost: Likely cost around
$350-
$400 a contract.
- Logic: You get high delta. If earnings pop, you ride the was. If it stays flat, you have intrinsic value.
2. Shopify
$SHOP - The “Whale” breakout
- Catalyst: Technical breakout / momentum. (Note: earnings are likely later, but the flow is positioning for next week.)
- The Setup: Stock is hovering at
$131.
- The unusual flow: A whale dropped
$499K on the Feb 06
$130 calls.
- OI interest 1,174% above normal.
- Why this matters: This is aggressive, at the money buying at the ask. They aren’t hedging; they are chasing a move.
The trade: Feb 6
$135 calls.
- Cost: likely around
$220-
$250 per contract.
- Logic: Pure gamma play. If Shopify runs to
$140, these print.
3.
$LYFT - The “sympathy” button
- Catalyst:
$UBER earnings on Wednesday, Feb 04 (pre market I think)
- The setup: When Uber moves, Lyft follows. Stock is cheap at
$16.86.
- The unusual flow: Bullish sweep on Feb 06
$17 calls.
- OI Interest 729% above normal.
- Why this matters. Traders are betting on a sympathy run up or a “good news is good news” reaction to Ubers numbers.
- The trade: Feb 6
$17 calls.
- Cost likely dirt cheap around
$50 a piece.
- Logic: max leverage. You can buy a few contracts. If Uber beats, Lyft likely spikes over
$17.50, and these go 2-3x
Allocation strat
$1K max risk
-
$PYPL 1 contract at
$48 or
$50
-
$SHOP 1 contract at
$135 strike.
-
$LYFT 4 contracts
$17 strike
keep some dry powder for adjustments
TL; DR
PayPal for the earnings turnaround (smart money is long). Shopify for the momentum breakout (whale is aggressive). Lyft for the cheap sympathy play on Ubers earnings.
Disclaimer: This is a casino. Options can go to zero. Position size accordingly.
