Jan. 24 at 9:53 PM
I’ve been saying this for a while and with Claude Excel dropping, I’m more convinced.
Microsoft is one of the more at risk incumbents in an AI native world. Didn’t seem obvious at first as they invested in OpenAI. They were labeled THE winner early on.
To be clear
$MSFT is not permanently impaired. But may be structurally challenged over time.
Their stack is still held together by Excel, PowerPoint, and Word.
The issue is where users now start.
• Writing journeys are beginning in ChatGPT, Claude, and AI-native tools. Not Word.
• Data exploration and analysis are happening in chatbots. Making excel less valuable overtime.
• Content creation is moving into Canva, Figma, Adobe Ai, and AI native platforms. Not PowerPoint.
That starting point matters because if creation, analysis, and ideation happen outside the Microsoft stack, the value of the stack itself slowly erodes.
Not overnight, it is a long arc and there are interesting second order effects.
When tech stacks decouple, best-in-breed wins again. That’s a real possibility here.
That’s where I think names like:
• Zoom
• Salesforce
• Adobe
start to look more interesting.
Ironically, some of the software names that have been questioned the most stand to benefit from this unbundling.
Again Ai may make the default bundle weaken and therefore specialists matter again.
This view still feels early but I think this may be directionally accurate.
What you got?
$ZM $CRM $ADBE