Jun. 18 at 12:46 AM
$ADBE
4. Figma Deal Blocked
Adobe's
$20B acquisition of Figma was blocked by regulators — a blow to innovation strategy.
Figma was a threat and an opportunity; now Adobe must compete with it without owning it, increasing pressure on XD and cloud collaboration tools.
5. Slowing Free Cash Flow Growth
FCF per share has grown, but recent quarters show slower acceleration.
Capex, R&D, and AI model training costs could compress margins.
Market expectations may be too optimistic, causing multiple contraction.
6. Valuation Premium at Risk
Even after recent pullbacks, Adobe trades at a rich multiple (~30x P/E, ~25x FCF).
If growth slows or interest rates stay elevated, valuation could compress significantly.
In a risk-off environment, investors may rotate out of high-multiple tech.
7. Execution Risk in AI Integration
Adobe must seamlessly infuse AI across Photoshop, Premiere, and Acrobat while preserving user trust and brand quality.
