Jun. 6 at 11:51 PM
$LULU I would not model a full
$380M refund.
A more realistic assumption might be:
* 50–75% of the tariff burden eventually disappears through court rulings, refunds, sourcing adjustments, exclusions, or policy changes.
* Buybacks continue aggressively because the stock is near multi-year lows.
Under that scenario, normalized earning power looks closer to:
$13–14 EPS, not the guided
$10.95–11.15.
At
$114/share:
* Guided EPS → ~10.3× earnings
*
$13.50 normalized EPS → ~8.4× earnings
*
$14.00 normalized EPS → ~8.1× earnings
That is why many investors are viewing the guidance as a downside case rather than a likely outcome. The biggest uncertainty isn’t tariffs anymore—it’s whether North America stabilizes. If Americas comps stop falling and tariffs ease, the earnings power could recover much faster than the current guidance implies.
