Monkeyclown
Nov 14, 9:35 AM
Why
$NBIS remains my #1 R/R play in AI infra
I hold
$IREN &
$IONQ alongside
$NBIS, but in pure-play neoclouds,
$NBIS stays #1:
#1 Nebius (
$NBIS): Q3 rev +571% YoY to
$980.8M. The >50% pullback on narrowed FY26 guidance (
$3.0B–
$3.2B) & shifting the >
$7B ARR target 2 mos to Feb '27 ignores that >90% of Q3 contract value has upfront prepays covering >100% of direct CapEx (and 75%–85% of '27 CapEx). With
$7.4B cash &
$12B–
$13B '27 rev outlook, downside is well-protected.
#2 IREN (
$IREN): Held for its
$20.3B backlog &
$22M–
$40M/MW pricing, though higher beta from past dilution.
CoreWeave (
$CRWV) & Colocation (
$WULF):
$CRWV has scale (
$132.5B backlog), but ~
$46.9B debt (~7.9% rate) wiped out Q3 op. profit. Colos like
$WULF offer lower risk, but earn a fraction per MW.
IonQ (
$IONQ): Complementary quantum/hybrid hold with
$3.7B cash,
$1.2B backlog & raised FY26 guidance (
$505M–
$515M).
