Jun. 6 at 9:30 AM
$WRD I did some number crunching, based on where I think we’ll end up on Robotaxi Revenue (Robotaxi Revenue = Vehicle Sales + Licensing + Revenue Share)
FY2026E Robotaxi Revenue (YoY)
Base case
$65.8M (+219%)
Upside case
$78.8M (+282%)
Graph shows quarterly revenue.
Key Assumptions
1) The key driver becomes revenue per incremental vehicle, not vehicle count itself. That is where the asset-light shift starts to show up.
2) 2025: 400 → 1,023 in 2025 (China fleet increment heavy)
2026: 1,023 → 2,600 / 3,000 (Asset light increment heavy)
3) Increment per region estimates from April:
China +600
Middle East +700
Europe +250
Hong Kong +50
Singapore +25
Other +25
4) 2025: 64% of Robotaxi deployments are asset heavy (China)
The flip:
2026: 64% of Robotaxi deployments are expected to be overseas (asset light, and they show up in the revenue line)
Your thoughts?
