Nov. 18 at 12:44 PM
$WRD Here’s a Frost & Sullivan report slide on the expected growth in China of Robotaxi services. This report data was used by Pony in their HK IPO road show.
It’s best not to look too much into this data. Just know that the market is growing rapidly. TAM inflation is one of the reasons why analysts provide such high price tags. Small investors in new emerging markets get lured into the TAM trap.
If we are to believe these numbers, the 2025e market size number in China is
$700M.
Pony framed as one of the leaders by the market did
$3.2m at the half way point. Likely doing ~
$11-12m over the full year.
WeRide did
$8.6m in H12025. Likely to range
$20-24m by 2025e. Even when you factor in partner cuts and aggregator take rates you won’t get near
$700M.
Analyst like Morgan Stanley just stick a
$24.50 price target based on a multiple (13.5x) over their overall revenue. That’s a handsome multiple for a company that derives less than 10% of their revenue from Robotaxi Services.
