LubberJML
Oct 9, 2:12 PM
$WRD More on GS research note from April 2026
1 of 2
Goldman Sachs just raised its outlnow believes commercialization is moving faster than it previously assumed (this is on course to happen).
By 2035, the bank projects 3.1 million units on the road, representing 36% of all ride-sharing vehicles in the country.
Fleet estimates were raised 7% to 25% across the entire 2025 to 2035 forecast period...First, deployment has been smoother than expected. Second, operators have given clearer guidance on their 2026 expansion targets.
Tier-1 cities in China are expected to reach break-even by 2026, assuming 21 trips per day, an average fare of
$2.8, and a vehicle price of
$21,000 (avg prices: WeRide
$40K, Baidu
$28K, PONY
$34K so Tony has to tame prices to compete in China or shift more o/s of China).
The bank forecasts WeRide's revenues will grow at an 80% compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2030. Its global fleet is expected to expand from 2,800 vehicles in 2026 to 415,000 by 2032.
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