Dec. 27 at 4:43 AM
$KMB $KVUE Kenvue merger
SETUP:
$48.7B acquisition, stock down 15% on:
• Dilution fears (46% to new holders)
• Tylenol autism litigation overhang
• Integration risk
BUT HERE'S THE TWIST:
KMB has NO litigation exit clause. They're paying 46% premium and risking
$1.1B break-up fee KNOWING about the lawsuits.
They hired "world's foremost experts" for due diligence. Either:
1) They're idiots (maybe, but unlikely)
2) They know litigation is manageable $ 1-3B (market prices
$5B+)
THE PLAY:
❌ NOT buying at
$101 (only 2:1 R/R)
✅ Waiting for Jan 29 shareholder vote
✅ Targeting entry @
$95-97 (10:1 R/R)
KEY CATALYSTS:
• 2nd Circuit Tylenol MDL ruling
• Jan 29 vote = insider conviction signal
• If 70%+ approval = institutions validated the risk
Entry @
$95: +24% to
$118 vs -2% to
$93
ALTERNATIVE: Just buy
$KVUE at
$17.20 for pure arb play (6% spread to deal close)
Position: 1 share tracker. Alerts set at
$95.
Not financial advice. DYOR. 📊
