Jul. 14 at 11:15 PM
$DK is a deeply mispriced U.S. refiner with multiple near-term catalysts. The most material is a potential
$250M–
$500M RIN refund tied to 12 active Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) petitions (2019–2024), pending with the EPA—not in litigation. A pro-refining White House and favorable court venue significantly raise approval odds. DK also holds
$623M in cash and has a
$565M buyback in motion—over 35% of its
$1.6B market cap—against a tightly held float 115% institutional/insider ownership, 14% short. Diesel margins are climbing; DK’s diesel-heavy slate and WTI Midland sourcing position it well as crack spreads rise. Its 64% stake in DKL (worth ~
$1.5B) is also undervalued, with DKL trading at just 10x EV/EBITDA despite 80% third-party revenue. Misunderstandings around consolidated debt (DK’s true net debt is only ~$ 268M) distort valuation. With SOTP value and structural clarity emerging, DK could re-rate meaningfully—this is a rare convergence of value, catalysts, and float-driven upside.
