Dec. 1 at 1:38 PM
$MNR – Mach Natural Resources Alpha Report (Technicals + Fundamentals + Risks)
1) Technicals: Base Forming With Momentum Turn
Holding support at
$10.9–11.0 after a multi-week downtrend.
RSI at 47 and MACD histogram green means momentum improving.
10 EMA flipped to Buy, early trend inflection; 20–200 EMAs still bearish.
Rising volume + insider buys = **accumulation at the lows.
=> Upside toward
$12.5–13.3 (50/100 SMA zone) looks likely.
2) Fundamentals: Strong Production, Volatile GAAP
Q3 revenue
$247.8M (+6.4% QoQ); TTM revenue
$1.0B.
TTM net income
$106.4M, though Q3 was -
$35.7M (normal O&G volatility).
TTM EBITDA
$537.9M vs
$1.99B market cap → cheap on cash metrics.
Analysts: 8 Strong Buys, AVG PT
$20.86 (+76%)
=> Cash performance is solid; GAAP noise is masking intrinsic strength
3) Yield & Cash Flow: High Payout, But Covered
Dividend payout appears extreme (236% of earnings) due to GAAP distortions.
Cash is what matters in E&P:
TTM OCF
$511.9M
TTM FCF
$213.1M
Q3 FCF
$149.6M surge
