Mar. 6 at 11:19 AM
DOW Upgrade Alert: JPMorgan lifts to Overweight from Neutral, raising PT to
$40 from
$26. ⚡
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Analyst takeaway: EBITDA swings from
chemical/fertilizer market shocks matter—a
$10/bbl oil move shifts NA integrated margins 4–5¢/lb. For Dow (~20–25B lbs ethylene derivatives), that’s ~
$1B EBITDA →
$1.35/share.
Comparatively,
$LYB is more leveraged: ~11B lbs =
$550M →
$1.70/share, plus oxyfuels benefit from oil/gas spikes. Dow’s advantage? Coatings, silicones, MDI businesses less exposed, more stable.
Key insight:
$DOW is positioned for steady gains even amid market swings, while
$LYB rides the volatility.