Tobago74
Oct 10, 6:08 AM
$TLT so seems everyone is not considering Wednesday cpi release... from consensus is already the hottest of 2026.
So how can be bullish for bonds? Should be considered transitory after 8 month of a war that was declared to last 3 weeks without a clear ending in site?
I start chasing the yield peak in March thinking that if the war finish yields will drop...
Now we are 8 months in, months where we cannot even make a clear assessment of the damage already made thanks to the great manipulation the administration hs has successfully done.
We could already been in a more structural environment than not 3 months ago.
But I can see people treating it as I was till few months ago... what if this coming cpi is the first of a series of hot ones?
By real yields math the inflation premium is barely priced in, things could get way worst for yields, even more without a resolution...
And as time goes on wars get more entrenched and Iran price goes up...
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