Jun. 26 at 6:52 AM
$DIA $RNMBY $SPY $VTI $VTIP
Crimea is a military feint. It is strategically too valuable for Moscow to let go. They might use Nukes over it. Slava ukraini and I hope they retake the territory, but I don't see this particular vector being the avenue for assault.
Now Rostov-On-Don, that would be a good place to concentrate forces. One could feint a assault on Crimea, force Russia to make major compromises and consolidate in unequal numbers in less favorable conditions. Then, right before deployment, shift position and likely gain a substantial numerical advantage. Given the situation, it is possible that a pincer could cut right through Mariupol.
Either way, Russia is looking cornered. This might seem a positive, but I am not particularly sure Putin is of rational thought. This has the chance of escalating further. There is an active mobilization underway where they are literally grabbing people off the streets. I don't see an intent in Russia to back down.
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/5938545-putin-crimea-end-approaching-ukraine/
