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Volume 1,184,629
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Company Profile

The fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index and it will invest at least 90% of its assets in U.S. Treasury securities that BFA believes will help the fund track the underlying index. The underlying index measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity of greater than or equal to one year and less than three years.

Phone: 1-800-474-2737
TalkMarkets
TalkMarkets Jun. 23 at 8:32 AM
Weekly Market Pulse: The Turkey Leg $IEF $SHY $UUP $SPX https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/weekly-market-pulse-the-turkey-leg?post=505251&userid=166882
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 20 at 11:46 PM
Your moment of zen: President Trump playing armchair economist!! $TLT $SHY $TIP - $SPY $QQQ
4 · Reply
foghornL
foghornL Jun. 19 at 12:09 AM
$TLT $SHY $TNX if you think tariffs will cause inflation then you should be shorting bonds otherwise HONK HONK
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 17 at 5:25 PM
The Fed board announces an open meeting to discuss proposed revisions to the supplementary leverage ratio standards which requires banks to set aside capital against assets regardless of their risk. The industry has argued the requirement was meant to serve as a baseline, requiring banks to hold capital against even very safe assets, but has grown over time to become a binding constraint on lending, and can actually hinder their abilities to intermediate Treasury markets during times of stress. The FRB has at least 5 potential options to align leverage ratios w/ the Basel leverage ratio framework’s goal: 1) setting eSLR leverage buffer at 50% of the applicable GSIB surcharge 2) setting eSLR leverage buffer at 50% of Method 1 GSIB surcharge 3) exempting Treasury securities & central bank reserves from SLR calculations 4) making eSLR leverage buffer countercyclical 5) exempting central bank reserves from SLR calculations without reducing the total amount of capital $XLF $TLT $TNX $SHY - $SPY
1 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 12 at 9:34 PM
US Treasury sells $22B of 30-yr bonds at a high yield of 4.844% vs 4.859% when issued (up from 4.819% last month & the highest since Jan) Bid-to-cover 2.43x vs 6-month avg of 2.39x (last month's 2.314) Directs (domestic buyers) 23.4% vs 6-month avg of 22.3% Indirects 65.2% vs 6-month avg of 63.2% Dealers 11.4% vs 6-month avg of 14.4% -- Very good auction - surprising given how much the deficit/debt will grow - Foreigners surprisingly came through (looking for some goodwill??) CBO ests that enacting H.R. 1 & making 16 tax provisions within H.R. 1 permanent would raise debt-service costs by $687B over the 2025–2034 period & increase the bill's cumulative deficit effect to $4.5T vs $3T if not permanent Note: CBO projections assume 10-year Treasury yields of 4.1% this quarter & falling to 3.8% by 2034 Current rate at 4.363% (needs to get below green line At 4.5% then interest payments would be $1.8T above baseline through 2034 $SHY $TNX $TLT $GOVT - $SPY
0 · Reply
Kornie7
Kornie7 Jun. 12 at 1:02 PM
$TNX nice :) $TIP $SHY
0 · Reply
TalkMarkets
TalkMarkets Jun. 10 at 1:30 PM
Trump 2.0, Powell And The Bond Market $IEF $SHY $TLT https://talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/trump-20-powell-and-the-bond-market?post=502139&userid=166882
0 · Reply
TalkMarkets
TalkMarkets Jun. 10 at 12:46 PM
Fed Policy Is Still On Hold, But For How Long? $IEF $SHY https://talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/fed-policy-is-still-on-hold-but-for-how-long?post=502131&userid=166882
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 9 at 5:10 PM
Various economic models argue that the US can justify debt levels rising beyond 175% of GDP based on the govt's ability to raise taxes to ensure interest payments on US Treasuries are met. However, these models fail to account for the fact that Congress is consistently unwilling to raise taxes or deal w/ spending. As a result, the validity of these models is questionable IMHO. Additionally, these models assume that there will be ample demand—both domestically & internationally—for US Treasuries. However, they do not take into consideration that the Trump admin is engaged in a tariff war & pursuing a weak-USD policy, which may undermine foreign demand Furthermore, the “One Big (Spending) Bill” includes a provision known as Section 899, which allows the US govt to impose punitive taxes on foreign holders of US assets based on subjective criteria. This provision will potentially dampen demand further in the face of a growing Treasury supply $SHY $TLT - $UUP $SPY $GLD
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 9 at 3:25 PM
Goldman: Lower oil prices will weigh on consumer energy prices, which will slow headline inflation & offset a small share of the inflationary impact of tariffs Contribution of energy prices to y/y headline PCE inflation has already fallen from roughly 0.05pp in Jan to -0.2pp in March & under our energy strategists’ f/casts, we expect it to remain at -0.2pp over the rest of FY25 But this drag is much smaller than boost from tariffs & we therefore expect y/y headline PCE inflation to rise from 2.3% currently to 3.3% in Dec 2025 & 2.7% in Dec 2026 Our latest update of our commodity passthrough model suggests that impact of commodity prices on y/y core PCE inflation would range b/n -0.05pp to -0.10pp thru end of 2025 if oil prices remained around current levels Accting for our strategists’ f/cast of further declines in oil prices, we would expect the impulse on core inflation to fall by another 0.03-0.05pp (rule of thumb: ~4bp drag on core PCE per -10% decline in oil prices) $SHY $TLT - $USO
0 · Reply
Latest News on SHY
TalkMarkets
TalkMarkets Jun. 23 at 8:32 AM
Weekly Market Pulse: The Turkey Leg $IEF $SHY $UUP $SPX https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/weekly-market-pulse-the-turkey-leg?post=505251&userid=166882
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 20 at 11:46 PM
Your moment of zen: President Trump playing armchair economist!! $TLT $SHY $TIP - $SPY $QQQ
4 · Reply
foghornL
foghornL Jun. 19 at 12:09 AM
$TLT $SHY $TNX if you think tariffs will cause inflation then you should be shorting bonds otherwise HONK HONK
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 17 at 5:25 PM
The Fed board announces an open meeting to discuss proposed revisions to the supplementary leverage ratio standards which requires banks to set aside capital against assets regardless of their risk. The industry has argued the requirement was meant to serve as a baseline, requiring banks to hold capital against even very safe assets, but has grown over time to become a binding constraint on lending, and can actually hinder their abilities to intermediate Treasury markets during times of stress. The FRB has at least 5 potential options to align leverage ratios w/ the Basel leverage ratio framework’s goal: 1) setting eSLR leverage buffer at 50% of the applicable GSIB surcharge 2) setting eSLR leverage buffer at 50% of Method 1 GSIB surcharge 3) exempting Treasury securities & central bank reserves from SLR calculations 4) making eSLR leverage buffer countercyclical 5) exempting central bank reserves from SLR calculations without reducing the total amount of capital $XLF $TLT $TNX $SHY - $SPY
1 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 12 at 9:34 PM
US Treasury sells $22B of 30-yr bonds at a high yield of 4.844% vs 4.859% when issued (up from 4.819% last month & the highest since Jan) Bid-to-cover 2.43x vs 6-month avg of 2.39x (last month's 2.314) Directs (domestic buyers) 23.4% vs 6-month avg of 22.3% Indirects 65.2% vs 6-month avg of 63.2% Dealers 11.4% vs 6-month avg of 14.4% -- Very good auction - surprising given how much the deficit/debt will grow - Foreigners surprisingly came through (looking for some goodwill??) CBO ests that enacting H.R. 1 & making 16 tax provisions within H.R. 1 permanent would raise debt-service costs by $687B over the 2025–2034 period & increase the bill's cumulative deficit effect to $4.5T vs $3T if not permanent Note: CBO projections assume 10-year Treasury yields of 4.1% this quarter & falling to 3.8% by 2034 Current rate at 4.363% (needs to get below green line At 4.5% then interest payments would be $1.8T above baseline through 2034 $SHY $TNX $TLT $GOVT - $SPY
0 · Reply
Kornie7
Kornie7 Jun. 12 at 1:02 PM
$TNX nice :) $TIP $SHY
0 · Reply
TalkMarkets
TalkMarkets Jun. 10 at 1:30 PM
Trump 2.0, Powell And The Bond Market $IEF $SHY $TLT https://talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/trump-20-powell-and-the-bond-market?post=502139&userid=166882
0 · Reply
TalkMarkets
TalkMarkets Jun. 10 at 12:46 PM
Fed Policy Is Still On Hold, But For How Long? $IEF $SHY https://talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/fed-policy-is-still-on-hold-but-for-how-long?post=502131&userid=166882
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 9 at 5:10 PM
Various economic models argue that the US can justify debt levels rising beyond 175% of GDP based on the govt's ability to raise taxes to ensure interest payments on US Treasuries are met. However, these models fail to account for the fact that Congress is consistently unwilling to raise taxes or deal w/ spending. As a result, the validity of these models is questionable IMHO. Additionally, these models assume that there will be ample demand—both domestically & internationally—for US Treasuries. However, they do not take into consideration that the Trump admin is engaged in a tariff war & pursuing a weak-USD policy, which may undermine foreign demand Furthermore, the “One Big (Spending) Bill” includes a provision known as Section 899, which allows the US govt to impose punitive taxes on foreign holders of US assets based on subjective criteria. This provision will potentially dampen demand further in the face of a growing Treasury supply $SHY $TLT - $UUP $SPY $GLD
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 9 at 3:25 PM
Goldman: Lower oil prices will weigh on consumer energy prices, which will slow headline inflation & offset a small share of the inflationary impact of tariffs Contribution of energy prices to y/y headline PCE inflation has already fallen from roughly 0.05pp in Jan to -0.2pp in March & under our energy strategists’ f/casts, we expect it to remain at -0.2pp over the rest of FY25 But this drag is much smaller than boost from tariffs & we therefore expect y/y headline PCE inflation to rise from 2.3% currently to 3.3% in Dec 2025 & 2.7% in Dec 2026 Our latest update of our commodity passthrough model suggests that impact of commodity prices on y/y core PCE inflation would range b/n -0.05pp to -0.10pp thru end of 2025 if oil prices remained around current levels Accting for our strategists’ f/cast of further declines in oil prices, we would expect the impulse on core inflation to fall by another 0.03-0.05pp (rule of thumb: ~4bp drag on core PCE per -10% decline in oil prices) $SHY $TLT - $USO
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 9 at 3:08 PM
NY Fed inflation expectations: • 1-yr-ahead expectations declined -0.4 ppt to 3.2% • 3-yr-ahead expectations declined -0.2 ppt to 3.0% • 5-yr-ahead inflation declined -0.1 ppt to 2.6% $SHY $TLT - $SPY $UUP $GLD
0 · Reply
Kornie7
Kornie7 Jun. 9 at 11:39 AM
$TLT $SHY $VGIT $TIP Why is this not a surprise lol we have been talking about global central bank network since late 2022 😂 Subservient, that what they all are becoming !!!
0 · Reply
TalkMarkets
TalkMarkets Jun. 6 at 11:07 PM
Interval Mania $SHY $UTWO $TUA https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/interval-mania?post=501693
0 · Reply
RicoElite
RicoElite Jun. 6 at 5:56 PM
$GLD $SHY $SPY $TLT $UUP Trump has shot himself in the foot, he talks so much no one cares to pay any attention to what he says anymore. Reporters are making fun of him and the TACO trade, he's been begging Powell to cut rates for a while and Powell just ignores him. He's the president who cried wolf...
3 · Reply
TraderMK
TraderMK Jun. 6 at 5:48 PM
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 6 at 4:57 PM
President Trump pressed FOMC Powell for an interest-rate cut of a full percentage point, saying Fed's monetary policy was a "disaster" Stephan Miran, White House's chief economist, explained that the admin's economic team thinks there is room for the Fed to bring rates down closer to 3% (the neutral rate) The prevailing view among economists & myself is that President Trump's tariff tantrum policy will dampen growth & spur inflation Miran said this view is misguided & noted that the President Trump's 2019 tariffs did not lead to any inflation --- This is misleading - 2019 tariffs were targeted vs 2025 tariffs are worldwide. Additionally, 2019 tariffs did increase prices by +0.2 to +0.4% on the affected products. Broader inflation remained low due weak global demand & low energy prices Typically, inflation is transitory - behavior does change - issue is how long does it take. But when tariffs are a moving target as they are now - behavior is frozen in place. $SPY $SHY $TLT $UUP $GLD
1 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 5 at 4:31 PM
During Joe Biden’s admin, the US Treasury dept started to change the composition of public debt issuance w/ more short-term offerings. Stephen Miran — now chair of President Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers — labelled this strategy as Activist Treasury Issuance (ATI) ATI is a variant of the Fed's Operation Twist, where the Fed push rates on longer-term bonds lower by buying them & selling shorter-term debt at the same time. Instead, Treasury push down long-term Treasuries by selling less of it Miran, Treasury Sec Bessent & many Republicans criticised ATI as a form of encroachment on monetary policy by fiscal authorities However, now that they are in charge...ATI is not being phased out Worse, Bessent is flagging the prospect of ATI w/ a far deeper form of Treasury-led QE: stating that if market conditions were to become disorderly, Treasury could decide to do more outright buybacks of longer-term debt as a way of preventing long rates from increasing too much $SHY $TLT $SPY $GLD $IBIT
1 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 5 at 4:04 PM
Treasury Secretary Bessent: The US “is never going to default...We are on the warning track & we will never hit the wall.” His comments came after JPMorgan CEO Dimon said the bond markets could crack if the US doesn’t contain the debt Asked about that, Bessent said “I’ve known Jamie a long time & for his entire career he’s made predictions like this. Fortunately, none of them have come true” He added of the debt “We didn’t get here in 1 year & this has been a long process. So, the goal is to bring it down over the next four years” However, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, would add ~$3T to debt levels over the next decade & $5T if tax cuts are left permanent compared w/ existing ests If yields stay at 4.4% then another $1.8T in interest cost will be added to the debt over 10 yrs. --- MAGA criticized the Biden Admin over MMT & fiscal irresponsibility, yet MAGA is doing the same if not worse b/c also engaging in a tariff war Paul Tudor Jones calls this "kayfabe" $SHY $TLT - $GLD $IBIT $SLV
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 4 at 9:14 PM
Mo' money mo' problems $SHY $TLT $SPY $VIX $UUP
1 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 4 at 9:09 PM
Kill Bill - The Electric Boogaloo $SPY $TLT $SHY $VIX $UUP
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Jun. 4 at 7:58 PM
US Labor Dept's economic statistics arm said it was reducing CPI collection sample in areas across the country due to resource constraints but claims the move should have "minimal impact" on the overall CPI data A BLS email to private economists that was shared w/ the WSJ read: "The CPI temporarily reduced the number of outlets & quotes it attempted to collect due to a staffing shortage in certain CPI cities. These procedures will be kept in place until the hiring freeze is lifted, and additional staff can be hired & trained" Inflation Insights: "The federal govt hiring freeze & the drive to cut funding across federal agencies may be starting to impact the quality of economic data" - cites changes in how the CPI for April was constructed & noting as well the decision by the BLS to stop producing hundreds of indexes on producer prices "These indicators shape interest rate & tax policy...degrading the quality of these statistics only worsens future economic outcomes" $SHY $TLT $GLD $SPY
3 · Reply
Kornie7
Kornie7 Jun. 4 at 2:42 PM
$SHY $TIP and bond exposure at 26%
0 · Reply