1-3 Year Treasury Bond Ishares ETF (SHY)

$SPY $TLT $TNX $SHY Dead cat bounce time in rates.

Are Rising Treasury Yields Part Of Warsh’s Inflation Strategy? Also Mentions: $SHY $IEF https://talkmarkets.com/article/are-rising-treasury-yields-part-of-warshs-inflation-strategy-1789129976

US PPI: +5.4% y/y vs +5.3% est (+4.8% prior) Core PPI: +4.6% y/y vs +4.6% est (+4.2% prior) $SHY $SGOV $TLT $UUP $GLD

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he's "the house now" when it comes to Japan's currency, & he's daring traders to bet against him. "I have pretty good insight into what the Bank of Japan is going to do. You can bet against me if you want." Today, US Treasury announces a new $6B bond buyback in longer dated US debt vs est’d $10B expected by the market We now have the highest 10-year treasury yield in 5 years at 4.85% Bravo 👏 - nobody believes your bullshit anymore!! $TLT $SHY $HYG $UUP $GLD

$TLT $VGIT $BND $SGOV $SHY What do contrarians do? Accumulate of course. I’m still a huge commodities bull, with current allocation at 85+% between miners and energy, but bond yields keep getting more and more attractive. https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2096989871542051008?s=46

Commentary | Hedge funds pose greater threat to US Treasuries than China ever did - https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/hedge-funds-pose-greater-threat-us-treasuries-than-china-ever-did-mcgeever-2026-09-03/ $TLT $VGIT $SGOV $SHY $BIL

3/4: Fed Chair Warsh keeps September hike in play; Reuters cites Barr backing need to hike as 10-year yield hits ~4.8% and hike odds rise $SHY $IEF $TLT PickAlpha View: the Fed stays biased to hike in September, keeping front-end yields supported and duration pressure elevated into the meeting.

$TLT $SGOV $SCHP $VGIT $SHY Here’s a question. Will this cup form? I guarantee you that 9% on the 10 year would shutdown borrowing. Refinancing would collapse. Rolling loans on CRE’s would bankrupt thousands of businesses. Inflation would be gone. Deflation would roar. I’m not suggesting it moves to 9% but 5.5% is highly possible. 30 year to 6.5% Nobody wants to hold debt for less than 5-7% The next few months are going to be interesting. Could see some serious volatility. The VIX sure is quiet lately. Circling back to that 6.5% on the 30 year. The TLT could still flash $66-68 I’m just saying. $82 has been a solid floor, but time will tell. https://wolfstreet.com/2026/08/29/us-government-sold-797-billion-of-treasury-securities-this-week-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-4-73-30-year-yield-5-22/

$SHY Im a buyer. There is no way the fed can hike with that July Jobs print... Forward looking, right?

$SHY Four regional Fed banks asked for a higher rate in July, the first time four or more have in three years, while the two-year already pays 61 basis points over. https://thedailydigits.com/i/212797737/the-feds-first-hawkish-vote-in-three-years-is-a-direction-without-a-date

$SPY $TLT $SGOV $SHY remember to take your medication folks

$SGOV $SHY $SPY $TLT Most investors have never managed money in a rising rate world. Their entire career happened inside the bull.

$SPY $TLT $SGOV $SHY WHAT IF the biggest bubble of our lifetime isn't crypto? Not AI stocks. Not real estate. What if it's the one asset every pension fund, every retiree, every "safe" portfolio is loaded with? Bonds. 200 years of rate cycles say the same thing: Every peak lasts 56–67 years. The 1981 top was 14% yields. The 2020 bottom was 0%. 39 years of falling rates just ended. What if we're now at the start of the next 50-year cycle — upward? Most investors have never managed money in a rising rate world. Their entire career happened inside the bull. The unwind has barely started. And no one is talking about it.

$SPY $TLT $BND $VGIT $SHY I see nothing wrong with scaling into bond funds. Even the big banks state that bonds will either outperform or match equities for the next 5-10 years. If you can get 5-6% returns and not take a chance on the SPY selloff, would you want to own some? More people are going to say yes. https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2091636094832128172?s=46

$SPY $TLT $SGOV $SHY Debt crisis brewing..

$SPY $TLT $SGOV $VGIT $SHY This about sums it up. “Borrow too much, go broke – that’s what happens on Wall Street. But it doesn’t happen to the federal government. What does happen is higher yields, higher interest payments, and higher inflation until Congress cries uncle and starts dealing with the deficit.” Many people still don’t understand the bond market or simply don’t want to own them. I understand, but I’m definitely going to move back into TLT soon. I will DCA my position. $82 floor looks good and if it does fall to the possible $66-68 level, then I will accumulate more. Getting 5-6% interest isn’t bad. Especially for a 5 year hold. It’s still highly possible that bonds outperform or equally perform equities the next 5-10 years. I’m overweight miners and energy for now, but bonds will begin to fill my portfolio again soon. Bonds are no longer dead. https://wolfstreet.com/2026/08/23/the-bond-market-is-finally-functioning-again-after-14-years-of-financial-repression/

$SPY $TLT $SGOV $SHY Getting close..

$SPY This is not the time period to be living way out of your means, taking on high interest debt, making expensive purchases and expanding your debt. You should be living very cautiously and not overspending. $TLT $SGOV $SHY

$TLT $VGIT $SCHP $SGOV $SHY I don’t see 10 to 30 year bonds falling until we’ve officially entered a recession. I still won’t be surprised to see the 30 year move above 6% and 10 year above 5%. “It took the bond market only two days to undo the one-day effect of Bessent’s second hocus-pocus show in August. It had taken the bond market almost two weeks to undo the effect of Bessent’s first hocus-pocus show at the beginning of August. If there is a third hocus-pocus show, the effect may be gone in one day (and we’ll start labeling them Hocus-Pocus 1, Hocus-Pocus 2, etc. to be able to keep track of them”. I’ve been calling for a 200 point basis spread for two years now. It’s coming. Nobody wants to hold trillions in debt for nothing less than 6%. Especially in this inflationary environment. At some point, I will begin scaling back into TLT however. At $82 is solid support. Regardless of it falls to $66-68, we can accumulate and simply wait for what we know is coming. QE

$TLT $SHY $SGOV $IEF META AI response on if rate cuts will happen soon Short answer: Probably not "soon" — and some forecasts now say no cuts at all in 2026. Here’s what the data is saying right now as of Aug 2026: What’s happening Fed is on pause: Rates have been held at 3.50% - 3.75% since the last cut in Dec 2025. Inflation is sticky again: May CPI was 4.2% YoY and core PCE was 4.1%. That’s well above the Fed’s 2% target. Middle East war/oil prices are keeping it elevated. Labor market is still solid: Unemployment 4.2% in June, which gives the Fed room to stay hawkish. What forecasters expect for 2026 It’s split now: Most brokerages: 0 cuts Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, JPMorgan and others now expect no policy change in 2026. A Reuters poll majority also expects the Fed to hold all year. Some still see 1-2 cuts: Citigroup and Wells Fargo see 2 cuts late in the year. The Fed’s own "dot plot" median is for just 1 quarter-point cut. A few even see hikes: BofA and Deutsche now forecast 2-3 hikes instead. Market pricing Futures markets as of early July put 0% chance of a cut in July and ∼75% chance of a hold. Some traders are even pricing in a hike by year-end. Why the shift Early 2026 expectations were for 2 cuts. But war-driven energy prices + inflation running hot pushed forecasts back. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also looks more hawkish. Bottom line for you "Soon" = unlikely. Next move is more likely a hold, and some say a hike. If we do get cuts, most that still forecast them point to Sept-Dec 2026, not now. What matters: Rates will likely stay "higher for longer" unless unemployment spikes suddenly. This is why SonGoku and other finance creators keep stressing risk management and dividend income right now — borrowing costs aren’t dropping fast. Want me to show how rate cuts vs no cuts would affect SCHD, JEPI, and a mortgage? Google AI response Rate cuts are unlikely to happen soon. The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% during its July meeting, and persistent inflation concerns alongside energy costs mean markets are currently weighing the possibility of further rate holds or even hikes rather than near-term cuts. Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs do not project actual rate cuts to begin until late 2027. Current Economic FactorsInflation Pressures: Elevated energy prices and sticky inflation metrics have caused the Fed to adopt a patient stance.Policy Stance: The federal funds target range remains steady at 3.50%–3.75% following a divided 9-3 vote in July.Market Outlook: Major forecasters expect policy rates to hold flat or face upward pressure before any easing cycle begins.

Yikes crazy.. $SPY $TLT $SGOV $SHY

Rising Bond Yields Are A Warning To The US Treasury And The Fed Also Mentions: $TLT $SHY $IEF https://talkmarkets.com/article/rising-bond-yields-are-a-warning-to-the-us-treasury-and-the-fed-1786971011