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The fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index and it will invest at least 90% of its assets in U.S. Treasury securities that BFA believes will help the fund track the underlying index. The underlying index measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity of greater than or equal to one year and less than three years.

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PickAlpha
PickAlpha Apr. 23 at 12:00 PM
4/5: Treasury Sec. Bessent says multiple Gulf allies (incl. UAE under discussion) requested U.S. dollar swap lines to stabilize dollar funding and avoid disorderly U.S.-asset sales amid Iran-war stress | View: Policy support is still under discussion, with no swap-line terms disclosed… $UUP $TLT $IEF $SHY
0 · Reply
venture77
venture77 Apr. 21 at 7:45 PM
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Apr. 21 at 7:27 PM
Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh emphasized during today's Senate testimony that he strongly favors shrinking the Fed's balance sheet (currently ~$6.7T) However, he offered no specific targets, timeline, or detailed plan for the pace & composition of reductions History shows that aggressive QT has often contributed to market stress & large drawdowns — notably in 2018 (the 'Taper Tantrum' echoes & volatility spike) and periods of the 2022–2025 QT cycle --- We have seen what happens (Iran War) when you don't have a plan!!! I applaud the long-term goal of normalizing the Fed’s footprint & reducing its distortive influence on markets & the economy....but without a credible, gradual plan that avoids liquidity shocks, the safer path right now may be a cautious, data-dependent approach w/ passive run-offs rather than abrupt changes $GLD $TLT $SHY $UUP - $SPY
0 · Reply
PickAlpha
PickAlpha Apr. 21 at 3:54 PM
4/5: Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh faces Senate Banking confirmation hearing Apr. 21; vote needed to advance before Powell term ends May 15, 2026 | View: <NA> $TLT $IEF $SHY $DXY $SPY
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Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Apr. 20 at 5:09 PM
Fed expanding balance sheet - buying T-Bills Fed explicitly frames this as not monetary easing — Chair Powell & others have said it's "solely for the purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves... supporting effective control of our policy rate" --- Bullshit - US Treasury is flooding the market w/ T-bills (not longer bonds b/c bond rates are higher) — a deliberate strategy to keep borrowing costs down while funding large deficits under the current admin. Also, by issuing fewer bonds, Treasury attempting to manipulate & lower mortgage rates The Fed is stepping in as a major buyer (~$40B/month RMPs, now tapering to $25B) to absorb some of that supply, prevent money-market strains, & stop short rates from spiking. Without the Fed backstop, the heavy T-bill issuance would risk exactly the kind of short-rate blowout they’re trying to avoid. $SHY $TLT $XHB $XLF $SPY
2 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Apr. 16 at 5:54 PM
Foreign central banks have slashed their holdings of Treasuries at the NY Federal Reserve to the lowest level since 2012, as countries sell the US govt bonds to prop up their economies & currencies in the wake of the Iran war The value of Treasuries held in custody at the New York Fed by official institutions has dropped by $82B since Feb 2025 to $2.7T Council on Foreign Relations: Oil importers such as Turkey, India & Thailand are probably among those selling Treasuries as they pay higher prices for oil, which is denominated in USD "A number of countries . . . don’t want their currencies to weaken further b/c it pushes up the local currency price of oil — and either means more fiscal subsidies or more pain for households. Hence the widespread decision to intervene in the currency market to try to limit depreciation & higher local currency oil prices" Treasuries are relied upon by global central banks as the pre-eminent reserve asset, since the $30T market for the securities is the biggest & deepest in the world Foreign official holdings of Treasuries held at the Fed have declined in recent years, as managers of foreign currency reserves have diversified away from USD $SHY $TLT $TNX $UUP $GLD
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Apr. 14 at 2:30 PM
Your momnet of zen... US Treasury Sec Scott Bessent said the Federal Reserve should wait before lowering interest rates as oil prices surge above $100 a barrel due to the ongoing war in Iran "Do I think rates should be lowered? Eventually. I think now that we have to wait & see" Bessent said the Fed is "doing the right thing by sitting and watching" how the Iran conflict plays out. The economy was "very strong" coming out of January & February, he added US inflation rose 3x faster in March than in Feb amid surging oil & gas prices Bessent said he does not believe recent price increases will permanently alter consumer views of the economy. "If ever there was 'Team Transitory,' it's this" --- Republican inflation is transitory but Democratic inflation is not??? Inflation isn’t a partisan phenomenon; it’s driven by the interaction of supply & demand - whether it’s supply chain shocks or massive demand stimulus, the source doesn't change the mechanics—it only changes how politicians frame it $SHY $TLT $UUP $GLD $SPY
1 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Apr. 13 at 4:02 PM
US sells 6-month bills at a high rate of 3.610%, B/C 2.84x And sells 3-month bills at a high rate of 3.62%, B/C 2.77x Demand (B/C) was decent for both — typical range is 2.5–3.5x lately. Nothing euphoric, but the market absorbed the supply without drama. Slight inversion at the very front end of the curve is notable. Rolling short-term debt (heavy T-bill issuance) at these levels keeps costs elevated in the near term... higher interest costs Treasury attempting to manipulate the curve by rolling debt to the front end to take pressure off the back end — where mortgage rates are usually priced Strategy is sound in theory (cheaper long-term yields help housing/consumer borrowing), but the cost is higher interest expense to service US spending in the short run, the cumulative interest bill keeps climbing Interest costs so far in FY26 have been the 2nd-largest spending category for the federal govt — outpacing outlays for all budget categories except for Social Security Relative to the size of the economy, interest costs would reach 3.2% of GDP this year — eclipsing the prev high set in 1991. F/casted to climb to 4.6% of GDP by 2036, under CBO’s projections $TLT $SHY $GLD $UUP - $SPY
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OfficialStocktwitsUser
OfficialStocktwitsUser Apr. 9 at 1:30 AM
$SHY RSI: 55.94, MACD: -0.0105 Vol: 0.13, MA20: 82.26, MA50: 82.37 🟢 BUY - Uptrend + healthy RSI 👉 https://quantumstockalerts.com Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This post reflects personal analysis and opinions only. Please do your own research before investing or trading.
0 · Reply
TalkMarkets
TalkMarkets Apr. 8 at 12:21 PM
US–Iran Ceasefire Takes Hold, As Fragile Peace Looms $SHY $IEF $SPX https://talkmarkets.com/article/f8387a3c-6f2d-4f16-bc80-cec675181b44
0 · Reply
PickAlpha
PickAlpha Apr. 23 at 12:00 PM
4/5: Treasury Sec. Bessent says multiple Gulf allies (incl. UAE under discussion) requested U.S. dollar swap lines to stabilize dollar funding and avoid disorderly U.S.-asset sales amid Iran-war stress | View: Policy support is still under discussion, with no swap-line terms disclosed… $UUP $TLT $IEF $SHY
0 · Reply
venture77
venture77 Apr. 21 at 7:45 PM
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Apr. 21 at 7:27 PM
Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh emphasized during today's Senate testimony that he strongly favors shrinking the Fed's balance sheet (currently ~$6.7T) However, he offered no specific targets, timeline, or detailed plan for the pace & composition of reductions History shows that aggressive QT has often contributed to market stress & large drawdowns — notably in 2018 (the 'Taper Tantrum' echoes & volatility spike) and periods of the 2022–2025 QT cycle --- We have seen what happens (Iran War) when you don't have a plan!!! I applaud the long-term goal of normalizing the Fed’s footprint & reducing its distortive influence on markets & the economy....but without a credible, gradual plan that avoids liquidity shocks, the safer path right now may be a cautious, data-dependent approach w/ passive run-offs rather than abrupt changes $GLD $TLT $SHY $UUP - $SPY
0 · Reply
PickAlpha
PickAlpha Apr. 21 at 3:54 PM
4/5: Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh faces Senate Banking confirmation hearing Apr. 21; vote needed to advance before Powell term ends May 15, 2026 | View: <NA> $TLT $IEF $SHY $DXY $SPY
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Apr. 20 at 5:09 PM
Fed expanding balance sheet - buying T-Bills Fed explicitly frames this as not monetary easing — Chair Powell & others have said it's "solely for the purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves... supporting effective control of our policy rate" --- Bullshit - US Treasury is flooding the market w/ T-bills (not longer bonds b/c bond rates are higher) — a deliberate strategy to keep borrowing costs down while funding large deficits under the current admin. Also, by issuing fewer bonds, Treasury attempting to manipulate & lower mortgage rates The Fed is stepping in as a major buyer (~$40B/month RMPs, now tapering to $25B) to absorb some of that supply, prevent money-market strains, & stop short rates from spiking. Without the Fed backstop, the heavy T-bill issuance would risk exactly the kind of short-rate blowout they’re trying to avoid. $SHY $TLT $XHB $XLF $SPY
2 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Apr. 16 at 5:54 PM
Foreign central banks have slashed their holdings of Treasuries at the NY Federal Reserve to the lowest level since 2012, as countries sell the US govt bonds to prop up their economies & currencies in the wake of the Iran war The value of Treasuries held in custody at the New York Fed by official institutions has dropped by $82B since Feb 2025 to $2.7T Council on Foreign Relations: Oil importers such as Turkey, India & Thailand are probably among those selling Treasuries as they pay higher prices for oil, which is denominated in USD "A number of countries . . . don’t want their currencies to weaken further b/c it pushes up the local currency price of oil — and either means more fiscal subsidies or more pain for households. Hence the widespread decision to intervene in the currency market to try to limit depreciation & higher local currency oil prices" Treasuries are relied upon by global central banks as the pre-eminent reserve asset, since the $30T market for the securities is the biggest & deepest in the world Foreign official holdings of Treasuries held at the Fed have declined in recent years, as managers of foreign currency reserves have diversified away from USD $SHY $TLT $TNX $UUP $GLD
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Apr. 14 at 2:30 PM
Your momnet of zen... US Treasury Sec Scott Bessent said the Federal Reserve should wait before lowering interest rates as oil prices surge above $100 a barrel due to the ongoing war in Iran "Do I think rates should be lowered? Eventually. I think now that we have to wait & see" Bessent said the Fed is "doing the right thing by sitting and watching" how the Iran conflict plays out. The economy was "very strong" coming out of January & February, he added US inflation rose 3x faster in March than in Feb amid surging oil & gas prices Bessent said he does not believe recent price increases will permanently alter consumer views of the economy. "If ever there was 'Team Transitory,' it's this" --- Republican inflation is transitory but Democratic inflation is not??? Inflation isn’t a partisan phenomenon; it’s driven by the interaction of supply & demand - whether it’s supply chain shocks or massive demand stimulus, the source doesn't change the mechanics—it only changes how politicians frame it $SHY $TLT $UUP $GLD $SPY
1 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Apr. 13 at 4:02 PM
US sells 6-month bills at a high rate of 3.610%, B/C 2.84x And sells 3-month bills at a high rate of 3.62%, B/C 2.77x Demand (B/C) was decent for both — typical range is 2.5–3.5x lately. Nothing euphoric, but the market absorbed the supply without drama. Slight inversion at the very front end of the curve is notable. Rolling short-term debt (heavy T-bill issuance) at these levels keeps costs elevated in the near term... higher interest costs Treasury attempting to manipulate the curve by rolling debt to the front end to take pressure off the back end — where mortgage rates are usually priced Strategy is sound in theory (cheaper long-term yields help housing/consumer borrowing), but the cost is higher interest expense to service US spending in the short run, the cumulative interest bill keeps climbing Interest costs so far in FY26 have been the 2nd-largest spending category for the federal govt — outpacing outlays for all budget categories except for Social Security Relative to the size of the economy, interest costs would reach 3.2% of GDP this year — eclipsing the prev high set in 1991. F/casted to climb to 4.6% of GDP by 2036, under CBO’s projections $TLT $SHY $GLD $UUP - $SPY
0 · Reply
OfficialStocktwitsUser
OfficialStocktwitsUser Apr. 9 at 1:30 AM
$SHY RSI: 55.94, MACD: -0.0105 Vol: 0.13, MA20: 82.26, MA50: 82.37 🟢 BUY - Uptrend + healthy RSI 👉 https://quantumstockalerts.com Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This post reflects personal analysis and opinions only. Please do your own research before investing or trading.
0 · Reply
TalkMarkets
TalkMarkets Apr. 8 at 12:21 PM
US–Iran Ceasefire Takes Hold, As Fragile Peace Looms $SHY $IEF $SPX https://talkmarkets.com/article/f8387a3c-6f2d-4f16-bc80-cec675181b44
0 · Reply
TalkMarkets
TalkMarkets Apr. 7 at 11:40 AM
Fed Walks A Policy Tightrope As Iran Conflict Clouds The Outlook $SHY https://talkmarkets.com/article/4ce5afa9-9222-4c0e-8c23-b554183b3448
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Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Apr. 6 at 6:21 PM
White House Economic Assumptions: Pure Bullshit? The latest OMB table is seriously deluded IMHO. Projecting a 10-year Treasury yield under 3.8% is a fantasy we haven't seen since 2022. As of today, April 6, 2026, the market is at 4.345% & shows no signs of dropping to the admin's rosey 3.3% target. Things have clearly gotten worse since 2022: - Deglobalization & Tariffs: New trade barriers are pushing inflation toward +3%, making low rates impossible - Spending Binge: CBO expects a $1.9T deficit this year, hitting $3.1T by 2036 Buyer Problem: With global tensions & war, foreigners w/ excess cash to bail out US treasuries is a disappearing species The Trump Admin is using "bullshit" math to hide their $24T 10-year deficit hole CBO projects: 10-year Yield: 4.4% (2031-2026) Real GDP: +1.8% avg Unemployment Rate: 4.2%-4.6% Inflation: +2.4% $TLT $SHY $GLD $TLT $SPY
4 · Reply
SuperGreenToday
SuperGreenToday Apr. 1 at 5:39 AM
$SHY Share Price: $82.57 Contract Selected: Sep 18, 2026 $85 Calls Buy Zone: $0.15 – $0.19 Target Zone: $0.28 – $0.34 Potential Upside: 73% ROI Time to Expiration: 170 Days | Updates via https://fxcapta.com/stockinfo/
0 · Reply
Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Mar. 23 at 3:59 PM
Iran war has wiped out more than $2.5T from the value of global bonds in March - bonds tumbled as a surge in oil prices would quickens inflation. However, still a far cry from the $11.5T lost in global equities by US/Israel attack BNP Paribas: Fed is expected to raise the possibility of hiking rates at its April meeting if energy prices remain high & the jobless rate is stable --- Incorrect IMHO - Aggregate Supply curve shifting left. Raising rates during a supply shock is a strategic mismatch. It does not mitigate root cause of inflation; in fact, it adds to the shock by increasing cost of capital. This directly constrains investment needed to expand much-needed supply Higher rates, IMHO, are best reserved for Demand Shocks. When Aggregate Demand curve shifts right, economy is overheating. In that scenario, higher rates are a "clean" fix to reduce price pressure & close output gaps without significant collateral damage to the industrial base $TLT $SHY $SPY $GLD $TIP
2 · Reply
DarvasBoxGuru
DarvasBoxGuru Mar. 22 at 12:46 PM
Housing has gone into the gutter as $DHI has broken its Darvas Box to the downside, $ITB reflects this also It hasn't helped that Govt Bonds have sold off making Rates go up instead of down $SHY $TLT
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TalkMarkets
TalkMarkets Mar. 19 at 1:20 PM
Powell’s Pause: A Gamble Wrapped In Uncertainty $SHY https://talkmarkets.com/article/powells-pause-a-gamble-wrapped-in-uncertainty-1773926429
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Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Mar. 18 at 7:17 PM
Fed Chair Powell says that if Kevin Warsh isn't confirmed by May 15, he would stay on and serve as chair pro tempore, citing recent Fed precedent. On the DOJ probe: "I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well & truly over." As to whether that means he would leave if the probe ends, "I have not made that decision." $SPY $TLT $GLD $UVXY $SHY
1 · Reply
RockyTSTH
RockyTSTH Mar. 9 at 4:21 PM
$SHY $XTWO Congressional Trading Report: Sen. John Boozman Bought Over $24K In BondBloxx Bloomberg Two Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF Stock
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Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Mar. 4 at 3:51 PM
-- US avg gasoline price now at $3.20 vs avg in Feb of $2.93 Back of napkin: Gasoline weight in CPI = 2.91% m/m change = +9.2% Therefore, gasoline could increase March CPI by +0.27% should gasoline stay at avg of $3.20 for the month of March -- Fed Fund Futures probability of a rate cut continue to deteriorate down from 3.6% yesterday to 2.7% -- Krugman: $10$15/barrel rise typically adds +0.2 to +0.4% to headline inflation/price levels, scaling up to +1% for larger shocks like $50/barrel. He contrasts this w/ past (eg: 1970s) spirals, noting lower pass-thru today due to anchored expectations & reduced energy weight in CPI -- A temporary export ban on crude & LNG would hit domestic prices but would spike global prices - irrespective to the geopolitical/diplomatic backlash 2022 Freeport LNG fire/outage (halting 2Bcf/d exports) caused Henry Hub prices to drop -20% to -30% WTI relative to global Brent: -7% to -20% discount to Brent, recreating pre-2015 export ban dynamics $USO $LNG $XOM $VG $SHY
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JLInvest
JLInvest Mar. 3 at 1:58 PM
$SPY $SHY keep an eye out on the short end to lock in rates. While the duration of the energy shock is unknown. What happens to the economy is pretty straight forward. Energy prices coupled with tariffs = demand destruction. The inflation caused by this will be transitory. We are ultimately headed for disinflation and potentially deflation post tariff pass throuh and energy shock. The rise in yields is an opportunity to capture risk free yield. The FED will be slashing rates by the end of the year. Being liquid and having cash available to buy bargains is what I am positioned for.
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TalkMarkets
TalkMarkets Mar. 2 at 12:38 PM
Record Longs, Record Wrong $MRNA $SPX also $SHY $JAZZ https://talkmarkets.com/article/record-longs-record-wrong-1772455032
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Ro_Patel
Ro_Patel Feb. 19 at 8:12 PM
WSJ: Fed's Miran now sees a less accommodative rate path Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran dialed back his calls for how deeply the Fed should cut rates this year, telling an interviewer that recent data have reflected a stronger economy than he had expected. - Dec 2025: Miran's projection was the "lowest dot" on the Fed’s dot plot, targeting a YE26 rate b/n 2.00% & 2.25%. - Jan 8, 2026: He publicly confirmed his call for -150bps of cuts, citing a restrictive policy stance & underlying inflation near the 2% target - Feb 3, 2026: He slightly moderated his language, stating he was looking for "a little bit more than a point [100bps]" of cuts over the course of the year. - Feb 19, 2026: Now favors a total of 100bps of cuts, bringing the year-end rate to just below 2.75% $SPY $XLK $UUP $TLT $SHY
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