Dec. 26 at 6:29 PM
$UVXY
If you believe that there is going to be a large spike in UVXY, you can play it one of two ways.
1) You can buy UVXY, and if you are right, you make a lot of money, but if you are wrong, you may lose 10 or 15% in just a couple of weeks. Statistically, people are usually wrong when they make this sort of prediction.
2) You can wait for a large spike in UVXY, then short it (or buy SVIX) and then wait for the price of UVXY to fall. Spikes usually don't last long. This way, if there is no spike, you aren't risking any money.
One of those approaches seems a lot less risky than the other. Some people are able to figure out which side of this trade is the money making side, and other people seem to take a while to figure it out and then just quietly stop posting on the UVXY forum.
I've been following UVXY for over seven years, and during this time I've never seen a single person who claims to have made money going long on UVXY over a long period of time such as a year or two.
