Jun. 8 at 10:56 AM
$SPY $QQQ $SMH $DIA $VIXY
This pullback is the froth coming off a market that climbed almost vertically for two months, not the top of the cycle, and the historical playbook from the last great buildout suggests these overbought resets typically resolve higher within a couple of weeks.
The selloff is being driven by Fed and rate anxiety rather than by any crack in the AI story or the economy, which is exactly the kind of fear-driven weakness I want to buy rather than flee. My long term case rests on three pillars that have not moved: S&P earnings growing roughly 25% this year on the strength of agentic AI, oil working its way back toward
$80 as the political cost of the closed strait mounts, and a Warsh-led Fed inclined to resist the calls for hikes. The level that would change my mind is the 10-year above 4.75%, and until that line breaks I view this as well needed pullback rather than the end of the advance.
https://dansheehan.beehiiv.com/p/last-day-abroad-and-the-first-real-test
