Jan. 5 at 2:55 PM
Venezuela’s regime change has renewed debate over how a gradual normalization of its oil industry under U.S. influence could affect energy markets. Although sanctions remain in place, U.S. involvement in rebuilding Venezuela’s oil infrastructure could eventually open access to heavy crude. In the near term, oil prices are unlikely to move, as OPEC+ policy, Russian exports, and global demand remain the primary drivers.
The most immediate beneficiaries would be U.S. Gulf Coast refiners, which are configured to process Venezuela’s heavy, sulfur-rich crude. Even limited, reliable supply could improve feedstock flexibility and margins. Over the longer term, Canadian heavy crude producers could face renewed competition, potentially limiting price differentials and pressuring margins, while U.S. shale producers remain largely unaffected due to their focus on light crude.
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