Apr. 9 at 7:18 PM
$CELH The math isn’t assuming volume share = revenue share, it’s using it as a proxy, which is directionally fair in beverages given relatively similar price points across brands.
Using reported mix (~58% Celsius / ~40% Alani Nu / ~2% Rockstar Energy), and Nielsen showing +23.6% total vs +90% Alani:
Even if you flex assumptions (price/mix, Rockstar decline), you still land in the same place:
Core Celsius is very likely negative. not +5–15%.
For Celsius to be +5–15%, one of these would have to be true:
1. Alani is materially less than ~40% of volume (contradicts filings), or
2. Alani growth is overstated (Nielsen unlikely to be that wrong), or
3. Celsius has massive price/mix tailwind masking unit declines
Otherwise, the weighted math just doesn’t reconcile.
This isn’t about precision — it’s about direction:
The portfolio growth is being carried by Alani
Core Celsius is at best flat, more likely down
