Mar. 10 at 4:47 AM
$VG Let’s try to put this BP award to some numbers and something to think about. This is gonna be a long read, but there’s a payoff at the end! Maybe 4 reply’s to myself
• BP won the liability phase of arbitration over LNG cargoes from the Calcasieu Pass LNG plant.
• The next step is the “quantum” phase, where the tribunal decides the actual damages payment.
• BP is now seeking at least
$3.7 billion and potentially more than
$6 billion, plus interest and legal costs.
The tribunal is not obligated to award the amount BP asks for, so there are several realistic outcomes.
Possible Arbitration Award Scenarios
1️⃣ Minimal award (symbolic or contract-limited)
Estimated range:
$500M –
$1.5B
This would happen if the tribunal:
• Limits damages to only proven cargo losses
• Rejects some of BP’s market-price arguments
• Applies contract caps or offsets
Why it could happen:
• LNG contracts sometimes cap damages.
• Venture Global argues BP’s numbers are “not supported by evidence.”
