Mar. 29 at 2:38 PM
$VG ChatGP and I have had a running dialogue for quite some time… (Yes, I know some don’t care for Chat but “I” sleep better!!! lol). I loaded up the pictures I took of CP2, corrected him when he thought some were of CP and asked two questions. Knowing what he knows now; conflict, progress of CP2, the state of arbitration… what should be fair market value today and what should it be if TTF and JKM were at fairly normal prices… yes, hypothetical because we know gas will remain elevated for sometime!
👉 Fair value TODAY: ~
$30–
$40
👉 With BP resolved + CP2 visibility:
$45+ is very realistic
2nd question…
👉 If the Middle East conflict disappeared tomorrow:
• Your fair value drops ~25–30%
• BUT:
👉 VG still looks undervalued at
$9–
$12
👉 Still supports a
$20–
$30 baseline
👉 If BP settles reasonably:
• Baseline shifts to
$25–
$35
These are valuations I can surely accept! We get a couple quarters under our belt with beats, I think we’re fricken laughing!!!
