Jun. 5 at 6:31 PM
LNG arbitage/spread continues to be strong:
- TTF month-ahead prices were up by +40% y/y to an average of just above
$16/mmbtu
- JKM prices were up by 50% y/y, trading at near
$18/mmbtu
vs
- Henry Hub prices were down by -6% y/y to an aveg of just below
$3/mmbtu
EU-wide underground gas storage was 39.7% on May 29 (down -16.4% y/y & down -25.8% from 5yr avg)
Long-range forecasts point to severe heatwaves and an active El Niño pattern across North Asia. This will exponentially drive up electricity demand for air conditioning - JKM/HH spread is on track to widen from its current
$15.20/MMBtu to north of
$22.00/MMBtu by late July
$LNG $VG -
$XLU $UNG