Jul. 30 at 4:33 PM
$VG
The Saudi/Yemen situation is escalating, and there is real damage to Saudi facilities already.
Market is used to hyper fast tech, binary zero/one, and can't really fathom crude and LNG facilities are any different. Trading is based on open vs closed in Hormuz, bombing vs "deal" etc.
Even if there was a "deal" today that allowed full transit immediately, some things take months for LNG (traffic/backlog), years (repair Ras Laffen) and some things will never fully recover (North Field expansion, Trust in Qatar supply).
And of course there won't be any single, elegant "deal" that fixes all this in the short term. Personally I'd like to see resolution as soon as possible, avoiding any demand destruction long term. I'm unbiased as VG is just one of many investments, and most others move differently during this conflict. When it's done I hope they all move together. UP