Apr. 10 at 12:49 AM
$VG
The 8-K is excellent on cargoes, especially considering Fern. The pricing is exactly as expected, considering that "spot" is not agreed the day the ship is loaded, but rather 30+ days in advance. So there is ZERO war effect, Hormuz/Ras Laffen etc in the Q1 numbers. Additionally, many of the cargoes were priced at Nov/Dec depressed prices. The "anchor" of the
$2 CP1 prices are becoming less relevant as Plaquemines cargoes are now triple CP1. ALL of the closure/Ras Laffen effect will come in Q2+. And many analysts still assume only 30% spot when in fact VG is 70% spot until Q4 2026 when some of Plaquemines goes SPA. This is a likely a
$9 billion EBITDA year. MCap is now 35 billion. Play with these multiples as you wish.