Jun. 24 at 1:10 PM
$VG Keeps coming down with energy. Market is questioning durability of margins at this point, but:
Pre-war:
* TTF ~30-32
* Henry Hub ~4
* VG ~
$9.68
Today:
* TTF ~41-42
* Henry Hub ~3+
* EBITDA guidance +60%
* VG ~
$11.10
That’s not a huge premium.
If someone had shown me those numbers three months ago and asked where the stock should trade, I’d probably have guessed somewhere in the
$13-
$15 range, not barely above
$11.
The reason I keep pointing to the July shipping release as being so important is that it may force the market to confront actual numbers instead of narratives.
