May. 28 at 4:08 PM
$VG
Just sit back, relax, and let it come to you over the summer.
There is a ZERO chance that Hormuz returns to prewar traffic levels in the next 5 years. Structural caution from shipowners, elevated risks, insurance costs and diversification efforts by gulf exporters will keep it suppressed for years. For LNG its even less likely than for oil; the scars are deeper here.
The status quo is excellent for VG. The "deals" keep the world economy healthy, and reality is very little LNG through Hormuz. VG spreads have shifted materially toward JKM, so when TTF ain't there we shift east, until reality sets in in the west.
This has been a giant gift that de-risked our business model (incl 5 year deals at > double pricing) and allowed management to proceed full bore. Could not have been better for us. Chill ❄️ It's coming.
