Jul. 6 at 5:01 PM
Kpler: Between 3-5 July, the Strait of Hormuz traffic remained active, w/ total of 108 verified crossings recorded across a wide range of vessel & cargo types. Traffic was slightly weighted East to West & remained spread across predominantly Iranian and Omani routes, while some crossings continued among IMO and Dark/Unknown routes
This shows continued operations but fragmented routing patterns & cautious behavior
Sanctioned vessel activity was also present, w/ 14 crossings recorded.
While the Strait remained open, a sizeable Dark/Unknown Route share and end-June IMO-confirmed attacks suggest that security, routing and insurance risks remain elevated
RBC: "... we think Hormuz transits will remain well below prewar levels given the enduring security threats and Iran's insistence on retaining operational control. While crossings have recently averaged around 40 ships per day, this is still well below the pre-war daily rate of 140, and we think Tier 1 Western and Japanese shippers will remain wary of two-way transits for the foreseeable future, especially given the significant chance that there will not be a final agreement by mid-August."
Note: The 2026 oil shock has almost fully unwound - OPEC Reference Basket peaked at
$146/bbl on March 19 & now at
$69/bbl
Note: UAE is no longer in OPEC+
Note: Russia's oil windfall from the Iran war is gone - Urals fall below the price Moscow's own budget needs (Russia's 2026 budget assumes
$59 Urals to balance) - currently trading at
$41.66/bbl
Note: Ukraine continues to bomb oil infrastructure inside Russia. This time, the target was the Russia's largest oil refinery in Omsk which is located more than 2,200 km from the front lines
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