ConcentratedPositions
Oct 21, 3:51 AM
$FET Based on details in the HAL call I’m having a hard time believing we’re not coming in very solid. Only thing that was underwhelming for
$HAL was NA frac.
I need to hear
$SLB $BKR and some others speak before i get too crazy but there’s a couple year tailwind here, minimum.
I’m guessing
$FET can do 10-15% rev growth each of the next 2 years…. That’ll be
$80-
$120 million rev annually which is
$20-30mm EBITDA.
So I’m looking at
$160-200 million EBITDA by YE 2028.
Management thinks they can beat the market (which they’ve proven) so theres plenty if upside optionality. Stock price 2-3x just on base case over 2 years, plenty more in the tank
Let. It. Play. Out
Full disclosure, i hedged with some calls into October (as i said was completely rational in previous posts)
Lost some shares at
$75 (sold calls for
$6.50). Kept some very good ones at
$80 that i sold for
$6. Bought 10k of the 20k that were assigned back between
$83-84 today.
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