Sep. 4 at 12:51 PM
$MU $KLAC $TMO $HPE $QQQ
quant-builder.ai
Tech Reversal Yesterday: Models Were Keyed In - JOBS STRONG LIKE BULL
I have been using the same three models for the past few months.
For about a month those models were leaning healthcare and SPY. Day after day. Even the QB500 model would have healthcare in it. Then yesterday I had a different list to trade from. The models flipped into heavy into tech. I just traded what was on the list.
Tech opened soft, many of the tech names were down big. Looked like the wrong call. I was able to liquidate a bunch of older healthcare trades early, anything positive. TMO did me a favor and had a huge early rally and trimmed itself. Still own a 2% position.
I rolled into tech early. Got stopped out of my remaining 1.5% HPE, then added back a 3% position. Fine company. Great earnings. Then it hit take-profit at +5% and again at +7%. Now I’m out again. I also added QQQ too, the tech ETF, because the models were bullish, I had raised a bunch of cash from healthcare, I was only about 60% long after the trading in the morning and I added a 15% position in the QQQ to get up to 75% long and rode it for the day. Sold it at the close.
A lot of the book cleaned itself up through exits during the day. I cleaned it up more at the close. Finished only about 40% long. Up ~ 85bps on the day . Just shy of the ATH from a few weeks ago. Looking to buy dips on volatility. We are in this weird phase that happens now and then, where good news is bad news. Jobs report only complicates things and probably see a rise in interest rates. Futures dropped on the number
Top Holdings now are MU, KLAC, SNDK, TMO, MXL, STZ
First image is this morning. Friday, September 4. Combined list from those same three models, ranked by confidence. 26 deduplicated picks. Tech, even from QB500 model, still overweight.
Second image is the same Tech All Cap Long portfolio chart I posted yesterday. 30 days. The middle chart is Picks/Day. While tech was moving higher, it kept printing close to 20 picks a day. Then as the sector topped and got weak, the model pulled back. Yesterday it was at 32 total picks, far higher than normal (capped at 20 on the chart)
Third image is Healthcare, the other direction. Same middle chart. Yesterday it dropped to 4 picks.
Fourth image is all three models together. Had you just opened Today's Picks every day, let the models rank the list, bought the top 20 at 1% per name at the open, used a -5% stop, and held through the target date, this is how that path looks. 64 days.
